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jeffrey simpson

No penalty exists for political imitators, so when an Italian cabinet minister declares that "Italy is back," the Trudeau government lacks any claim for copyright infringement.

Back from what, we might ask of today's Italy. Back a little from a long period of very slow growth, bordering on recession. Back from unemployment of 12.8 per cent, but still at 11.5 per cent. Back definitely from swinging-door governments – 63 of them in 70 years – to the current one of stability and reasonable popularity, led by Italy's version of Justin Trudeau, centre-left Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

Italy was once called, among other things, a "non-deciding democracy." Many were the reasons, including a constitutional system that required decisions to be approved by two equal legislative bodies, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Now, however, the Senate has been reduced in power and number of members and the proportional voting system (always a plague in Italy) has been changed to reward parties with more than 40 per cent of the popular vote. The changes should lead to more effective and durable governments, which Italy has always needed to deal with, inter alia, an antiquated labour market, a stifling bureaucracy, high taxes and a debt-to-GDP ratio above 125 per cent.

Mr. Renzi, 41, calls himself the "destroyer," by which he means a serious reformer for whom little is taboo. He is also a strong pro-European, although recently he has taken to criticizing the European Union for excessively strict monetary and fiscal policies that he says are hurting Italy's growth.

These critiques notwithstanding, Italy stands out these days in being arguably the only major country in Europe without protest parties against the EU and immigrants. In the last European Parliamentary elections, which gave support to such parties in many countries, none appeared in Italy. The Northern League, urging greater autonomy for the north of Italy (north-south tensions are as old as Italy itself), is still around, but its complaints are more about what happens inside the country than with the EU.

Italy as an example of political stability and centrist politics? Italy will need both to surmount its deep challenges and to confront new ones, the most difficult of which might be the tide of refugees and economic migrants washing onto Italian islands in the Mediterranean Sea and even mainland Italy.

The EU's deal with Turkey, paying that country handsomely for not allowing refugees and migrants to leave its borders, plus border-control measures throughout the union, will inevitably push some of those hoping to land in Europe toward the route north through Italy. Just across the Mediterranean sits Libya, with its warring factions, forces of the Islamic State, no functioning central government and a shattered economy.

Across the Mediterranean, too, sits Tunisia, where, as George Packer's recent powerful article in The New Yorker showed, the Islamic State and al-Qaeda are finding fertile ground for recruitment. On the surface, Tunisia appeared to be the only example of the Arab Spring producing a democratic government; deep down in society, economic stagnation, religious resentments against secularism and the lure of sharia law are producing recruits for terror.

Italy will undoubtedly need help from the rest of the EU to cope with what is already a stronger stream of refugees and migrants. European solidarity in the face of this crisis has been decidedly lacking, perhaps because the flow was so huge and sudden and would have been only the first wave of an endless stream, had not the EU taken restrictive measures. We shall see how Italy copes, given how geographically close it is to the failed or repressive states of the Middle East and North Africa.

Can solidarity be found in the face of crisis, or should we say crises? There are many interlocking crises for the European Union, which itself remains more of an arrangement than a vision or, as a wise European suggested, a space but not yet a place. Italy, hobbled for so long by its internal dysfunction, will never rival Germany or even France for influence within the union, but it seems on a much better path now than in a very long time.

Italy could be a sorely needed constructive voice, remembering that the original six-country European Community's founding document was the Treaty of Rome.

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