The Taliban government in Afghanistan has told farmers they can once again produce opium if the United States launches an attack, according to reports reaching UN drug officials.
This likely would result in the large-scale resumption of the cultivation of opium -- the raw material for heroin -- in about 10 days to two weeks when the growing season starts, they say.
Afghanistan was the world's largest source of opium, accounting for about three-quarters of production. But supreme leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, under U.S. pressure, declared last year that growing opium was "un-Islamic" and warned that anyone caught planting poppy seeds would be severely punished. That order led to a drop in production of more than 90 per cent.
But prices, as monitored in Pakistan, now are reported to be falling dramatically, a signal that there is an expectation of increased supply.
Mohammad Amirkhizi, senior policy adviser at the Vienna-based United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention, said yesterday that Pakistani press reports monitored by his Islamabad office say that the "Taliban have told farmers that in case of U.S. attack they can go ahead and cultivate."
Mr. Amirkhizi cautioned in an interview that, given the wholesale pullout of United Nations staff from Afghanistan, he has no way of confirming the Taliban edict.
The Taliban's possible reversal is being interpreted in some U.S. quarters as a way for the besieged Kabul government to raise money through levies on production and a way for impoverished farmers to make enough money to feed their families.
Mr. Amirkhizi said that, according to prices monitored in Islamabad this week, a kilogram of Afghan opium could be bought for $90 (U.S.), down from as much as $700 a kilogram just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
There are a number of possible explanations, he said.
One is that farmers and traffickers are speculating by rapidly depleting stockpiles in anticipation of U.S. military action.
"So they are trying to use this opportunity to get rid of opium they have at higher prices because if production is resumed there would be more production and the prices would go down," Mr. Amirkhizi said.
Most heroin from Afghanistan is sold in Europe. Most heroin sold in the United States comes from Latin America.
Despite the Taliban's announcement in July, 2000, banning opium cultivation, the narcotics trade has continued to flourish. Mr. Amirkhizi said that the amount of Afghan drugs seized by neighbouring countries has remained the same or increased.
Indeed, Washington has long doubted the effectiveness of the ban; the Taliban's rebel opponents, known as the Northern Alliance, have continued to allow opium production in the areas they control.
"It is not clear to what extent the Taliban will enforce the ban on a continuing basis," the U.S. State Department said earlier this year. "Nor is it clear that a ban on poppy cultivation will impede a drug trade suspected by the international community to have large quantities of opium in storage."
The State Department said that neither the Taliban nor the Northern Alliance had taken significant steps to seize stored opium or the chemicals needed to transform it into heroin, or to arrest and prosecute drug traffickers.
Traditionally, Afghan opium and its heroin derivative have been trafficked to Europe and North America through Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. More recently, smuggling routes have also gone through the Central Asian republics that were formerly part of the Soviet Union.
Quoting U.S. officials, The New York Times said this week that the Taliban government has earned tens of millions of dollars from the export of heroin and other narcotics since it imposed the ban.
Opium routes from Afghanistan
1. There are two popular routes out of Afghanistan for smuggling opium into the United Arab Emirates: (a) Cargo planes fly from Kandahar, to Dubai, or (b) the drugs move overland from Afghanistan to Pakistan where they are sent by boat to the UAE. 2. Substantial amounts of opium from northern Afghanistan travel through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, through Russia, and then into Europe. 3. The most popular trafficking route for the opium is Afghanistan to Pakistan where it is smuggled into Turkey to be refined into heroin and sold on the streets of Europe.