European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks ahead of the 21st EU-Canada summit in Montreal on Thursday. Canada and the EU will craft 'a new chapter' in their alliance at the summit, she says.ALEXIS AUBIN/AFP/Getty Images
Ursula von der Leyen did not survive for more than 14 years as a senior German cabinet minister before becoming the first woman to lead the European Commission without proving her determination and stubbornness.
Just ask her ex-boss, Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor who made Ms. von der Leyen her defence minister and pushed her candidacy for the EC job in 2019.
The EC President displayed those same traits in Montreal on Thursday by reiterating her goal of making Canada the “first associate member” of the European Union, even though several EU countries have pushed back against that label and Prime Minister Mark Carney has played down its importance.
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That Ms. von der Leyen stuck to her script anyway tells you a lot about her character. The 68-year-old mother of seven – you read that right – does not give up easily.
She will need that quality in spades as she and Mr. Carney seek to raise the Canada-EU relationship to the “highest level possible” beyond their current free-trade agreement into a broad alliance spanning defence, digital sovereignty, critical minerals, payments systems and labour mobility that could even lead to the creation of new bilateral institutions.
“Because the current moment in history calls for it,” Ms. von der Leyen told a by-invitation-only audience of about 100 people at a C.D. Howe Institute event as part of a two-day Canada-EU Summit.
“We are witnessing a deeper decay in the international order. Alliances and assumptions that have enabled our prosperity and security are changing rapidly, and each nation and region is looking at how to secure its own interests and its own independence. … We need to imagine partnerships that are built on trust and driven by common interests and beliefs.”
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The alliance Ms. von der Leyen and Mr. Carney hope to establish in Montreal could take years to bear fruit. But its very idea carries the immediate risk of provoking President Donald Trump. That is a risk neither leader can afford to ignore. Canada and the EU still depend far more on the U.S. market than each other’s. That is never going to change.
Any attempt by Canada and the EU to circumvent U.S.-controlled payments systems and satellite networks will be seen in Washington as a threat to U.S. hegemony in sectors it considers key to national security.
Still, there are other areas where Canada and the EU can deepen their relationship and hedge against their shared dependence on the U.S. market. But Ms. von der Leyen and Mr. Carney should be clear about the limits of any alliance. Creating expectations out of a political desire to be seen as standing up to Mr. Trump will only set them up for failure.
Ms. von der Leyen will need to secure buy-in for any new alliance with Canada from the EU’s 27 members at a time when the bloc is under considerable strain amid the resurgence of nationalist political parties across the continent. Coming elections in Spain, France, Italy and Poland could see euroskeptic parties wield more power in those countries and challenge EU decrees.
A win by National Rally Leader Marine Le Pen in France’s spring presidential election would constitute the single biggest threat to Ms. von der Leyen’s agenda. France is the second largest contributor to the EU budget. Together with Germany, it arguably holds more influence over EU policy than the bloc’s 25 other members combined.
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Under Emmanuel Macron, France has strongly supported Ms. von der Leyen’s leadership. But Ms. Le Pen has made it clear that will change if she becomes president.
“Over the past 10 years, France has seen the implementation of a European vision that is the exact opposite of the one I will champion,” she said at an Oct. 14 meeting of European far-right leaders in Brussels. “They wanted a powerful Europe. We got a powerless Europe. They wanted European sovereignty. All we’ve gotten is the dilution of national sovereignty.”
The possibility of a Le Pen victory has injected a sense of urgency into almost everything Ms. von der Leyen does these days, starting with her frantic efforts to pass a seven-year budget that would lock in EU spending until 2034. The move has led Ms. Le Pen to accuse Ms. von der Leyen of showing “contempt” for “democratic processes in Europe.”
Le Pen-proofing EU spending programs and securing new funding to support Ukraine’s war effort will remain Ms. von der Leyen’s top priorities in the coming months. Amid continuing crises and competing demands, any new Canada-EU alliance could stall in its embryonic phase or die altogether.
Ms. von der Leyen does not sound like she intends to let that happen before her current term in office ends in 2029. She usually gets her way. But that could prove harder in the future.