Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington and, the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
A scarred generation. That’s how the future will describe the cohort of people in the health, service, retail and hospitality industries who were on the pandemic front lines. This is akin to the folks that bore the brunt of the Great Depression. Lives were disrupted, personal values were challenged, and what emerged was a hard-nosed questioning of self and society.
We are now better understanding the fallout from the pandemic both in terms of economic and mental health.
We have been tracking views on the future standard of living for more than a decade and they are more negative than ever today. Back in 2012, 37 per cent of Canadians felt that the next generation would have a lower standard of living than what we have now; this has increased to a whopping 65 per cent of respondents. Only one in 10 people believe the standard of living will be higher than it is today, compared with 26 per cent more than a decade ago. What were tepid numbers a decade ago are very worrisome today.
STANDARD OF LIVING
Do you think the next generation of Canadians will have a standard of living that is higher or lower than today?
Higher
Lower
2012
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ont.
Que.
Atlantic
26%
12
11
11
10
9
8
37%
56
58
65
64
67
70
STANDARD OF LIVING
Do you think the next generation of Canadians will have a standard of living that is higher or lower than today?
Higher
Lower
2012
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ont.
Que.
Atlantic
26%
12
11
11
10
9
8
37%
56
58
65
64
67
70
STANDARD OF LIVING
Do you think the next generation of Canadians will have a standard of living that is higher or lower than today?
Higher
Lower
2012
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
26%
12
11
11
10
9
8
37%
56
58
65
64
67
70
There exists a difference of opinion between the two largest provinces. Seven of 10 Ontarians think the standard of living will be lower in the future compared with 56 per cent of Quebeckers. Women and men have similar views on the future, but there is also a noticeable generational difference. Middle-aged people are more negative (70 per cent) compared with those older than 55 (61 per cent).
More significantly, three of 10 Canadians are worried or somewhat worried about paying for housing next month. This is higher than the numbers in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when 16 per cent were worried or somewhat worried. Concern about paying for housing rises to 38 per cent of individuals under 35 years of age.
HOUSING COSTS
How worried are you about paying your housing costs next month?
Not worried or somewhat not worried
Worried or somewhat worried
2020
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ont.
Que.
Atlantic
82%
73
70
68
66
65
61
16%
25
28
29
30
34
38
HOUSING COSTS
How worried are you about paying your housing costs next month?
Not worried or somewhat not worried
Worried or somewhat worried
2020
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ont.
Que.
Atlantic
82%
73
70
68
66
65
61
16%
25
28
29
30
34
38
HOUSING COSTS
How worried are you about paying your housing costs next month?
Not worried or somewhat not worried
Worried or somewhat worried
2020
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
82%
73
70
68
66
65
61
16%
25
28
29
30
34
38
A year ago, almost one-half of Canadians (48 per cent) said inflation wasn’t a major problem. Those reporting that it is not a major problem has declined to 40 per cent, and a majority of Canadians said they have cancelled a major purchase and/or said they are having difficulty paying for necessities.
How about our mental health? Sure, it’s better when compared with the pandemic, but we are not out of the woods by any stretch. Nanos tracking reveals one in three Canadians (34 per cent) say their mental health is still worse or somewhat worse than before the pandemic. Generationally, Canadians under the age of 35 are more likely to report worse or somewhat worse mental health (42 per cent) than those over 55 years of age (27 per cent). And about one in five Canadians have been in a situation where a family member, friend, acquaintance or health care professional has expressed concern to them about their personal state of mental health.
MENTAL HEALTH
Is your mental health today better or worse than before the COVID-19 pandemic?
About the same
Worse or somewhat worse
2020
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ont.
Que.
Atlantic
52
51%
46
44
43
43
40
22
31
34
35
37
38%
40
MENTAL HEALTH
Is your mental health today better or worse than before the COVID-19 pandemic?
About the same
Worse or somewhat worse
2020
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ont.
Que.
Atlantic
52
51%
46
44
43
43
40
22
31
34
35
37
38%
40
MENTAL HEALTH
Is your mental health today better or worse than before the COVID-19 pandemic?
About the same
Worse or somewhat worse
2020
2023
Canada
Canada
B.C.
Prairies
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
52
51%
46
44
43
43
40
22
31
34
35
37
38%
40
On a more positive note, for the first time since the pandemic began, there has been a noticeable shift in alcohol consumption. Canadians are reporting that they are consuming less (20 per cent) rather than more (13 per cent) alcohol. This is a reversal from the reported consumption during the pandemic in 2020.
What does this all mean?
For things within the control of Canadians, things are still difficult, but they are improving. There has been incremental betterment when it comes to mental health, but it is still an issue for many.
For things outside of the control of Canadians, such as the consequences of inflation, things are getting worse. People are more pessimistic about their future standard of living than they have been in more than a decade. Many Canadians, and especially young people, are struggling to pay for housing and basic necessities.
The twist is that some economic indicators suggest that things are getting better. According to the most recent federal budget, “unemployment remains near its record low … and Canada’s economic growth was the strongest in the G7 in the past year.” The same budget, however, also asserts that many face housing and food affordability challenges.
The unspoken truth is that the pandemic will have a long-term impact on the behaviour of people.
First, young people may very well become more frugal than their big-spending baby boomer parents. Although dreams of home ownership, nice vacations and an improving standard of living remain, expectations will be lower.
Second, if mental health was on the radar before the pandemic, it is now at the very centre of many Canadians’ lives. The good news is that Canadians are engaged and some are reporting improvement in their mental health; 21 per cent of respondents say their mental health is better, or somewhat better, than it was before the pandemic.
As a country, we have moved beyond lockdowns and stringent public-health measures. But the effects of the pandemic will stay with us for many years to come.