Hamas attack puts Biden in a difficult spot

Open this photo in gallery:

U.S. President Joe Biden has spent his first term trying to undo much of his predecessor’s foreign policy legacy as he seeks to restore American leadership and credibility abroad. Except in the Middle East, where Mr. Biden has followed Donald Trump’s plan for peace and security in the region.

Mr. Trump’s 2020 Abraham Accords, which saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalize relations with Israel, served as the template for the Biden administration’s efforts to engineer a similar deal between Saudi Arabia and the Jewish state. Those efforts had been progressing rather smoothly until Saturday, when Hamas unleashed the deadliest attack on Israel in five decades and sparked an outpouring of solidarity among Arabs throughout the Middle East.

Israel’s military response to the horrifying terrorist attacks on its soil may be justified in the eyes of the Western leaders who rallied behind Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the hours following the slaughter of hundreds of Israeli civilians by Hamas soldiers. But Israeli attacks on Hamas outposts in Gaza, and a potential ground invasion of the territory, will likely harden public opinion against Israel throughout the Arab world and upend Mr. Biden’s plan to remake the Middle East.

Indeed, that may be what Hamas was aiming for in striking Israel now.

The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel threatened to undermine Hamas and strengthen the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman had reportedly made limits on Jewish settlements in the West Bank a condition of any deal.

The powerful symbolism of a normalization deal between the Saudis and Israelis would have been hard to top, and even promised to breathe new life into the possibility of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

To secure a deal, the Biden administration had reportedly been offering Saudi Arabia security guarantees and help to establish a civilian nuclear program. In exchange, Riyadh was to agree to distance itself from China and perhaps even increase its oil production. Both developments would have been a huge feather in Mr. Biden’s cap in advance of the 2024 presidential election.

What’s more, a move by Saudi Arabia to join Egypt, Jordan, the U.A.E. and Bahrain in officially recognizing Israel would have further isolated Hamas and its main benefactor, Iran. The latter had as much reason to seek to scuttle a Saudi-Israeli deal as Hamas.

Whether Iran itself was behind, or had prior knowledge of, Hamas’s attack remains to be seen. U.S. intelligence officials have yet to establish a direct tie to Tehran. Nevertheless, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday that Iran “is complicit in this attack in a broad sense because they have provided the lion’s share of funding for the military arm of Hamas.”

Regardless of Iran’s complicity, the Hamas attack has forced Mr. Biden to pivot from being a prophet of peace in the Middle East to unequivocally backing Israel’s right to defend itself. On Tuesday, the U.S. President said he told Mr. Netanyahu that “if the United States experienced what Israel is experiencing, our response would be swift, decisive, and overwhelming.” His comments were widely interpreted as a U.S. green light for Israel to do what it needs to do to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities, even at the cost of thousands of civilian lives in Gaza.

With an unknown number of Americans being held hostage by Hamas, Mr. Biden is caught between standing up for Israel’s security and protecting the lives of U.S. citizens abroad. That will leave him vulnerable to further attacks from Republicans who already blame him for facilitating the Hamas attack by last month unfreezing US$6-billion in Iranian oil revenue held in South Korean bank accounts in exchange for the release of five American prisoners in Iran. Mr. Sullivan insisted on Tuesday that none of the money has been “spent” but refused to elaborate.

As for Mr. Trump, the frontrunner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination has blamed Hamas’s attack on “our country’s perceived weakness with an incompetent and corrupt leader.” Expect him to repeat that line often.

Mr. Biden had already been struggling to keep Congress onside as he seeks to provide more arms and funding for Ukraine. The Hamas attack, and Mr. Biden’s promise to provide more military aid to Israel, further jeopardizes continued U.S. funding of the Ukrainian war effort – to the delight of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As he embarks on his re-election campaign, Mr. Biden will have to account for his open-ended promise of military backing for Israel, potentially further alienating progressive Democrats who back the Palestinian cause. And a spike in oil prices driven by prolonged fighting in the Middle East could send U.S. inflation higher again.

None of the above bodes well for Mr. Biden’s chances in 2024.