The Iowa caucus results were grand, though with some caveats, for Donald Trump. But to use one of President Joe Biden’s favourite expressions: “Here’s the thing.” They were good for the Democrats as well.
That’s because the opponent that Democrats most fear had the most disappointing showing. Nikki Haley finished third. The former South Carolina governor beats Mr. Biden handily in head-to-head polls. She does considerably better against him than does Mr. Trump. She’s more moderate and broadens the Republican tent.
In a strong speech following her Iowa loss, Ms. Haley got tougher than she has been. ”Our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare,” she declared.
Last hope and, sadly for her, lost hope. Her finish cut into her momentum. Even if she recovers to win New Hampshire, Mr. Trump’s lead in subsequent states is likely too much to overcome.
The GOP race, Mr. Biden noted on social media, is over. “Here’s the thing,” he said. “This election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans.” Which is what he wants.
Trump’s Iowa caucuses win raises five questions for New Hampshire primary
Besides taking heart that he likely won’t have to face Ms. Haley, Mr. Biden can also be heartened by a couple of other aspects of the Trump triumph.
Republican voters showed little enthusiasm for their candidates. Even factoring in the terrible weather, the 14-per-cent turnout was dismal. Mr. Trump won 51 per cent of the tally. But when you’re the former president and you only get half your party’s vote, it’s hardly cause for champagne spraying.
Because here’s the thing. He got a free ride, an exceptional, unprecedented free ride. The other contestants spent tens of millions of dollars in advertising in Iowa attacking one another, but not Mr. Trump. Hardly a glove was laid on him. Has any front-runner ever been given that luxury? Usually, they are under constant bombardment from the challengers. Had he been under such attack, his number would have been much lower.
And there was something else that can cheer on Democrats: 30 per cent of the caucus-goers said in entrance polls that Mr. Trump would not be fit for the presidency if convicted on any of his long line of charges. The clock could work in his favour here. But there’s a good chance he’ll be found guilty on one of the several sets of indictments he faces before the fall. The verdict would be appealed, of course, but even if a conviction scares off a very small percentage of Trump supporters, it could be decisive.
Caveats aside, there’s no questioning that it was a successful night for the Republican ringleader. The combined vote total of all challengers didn’t even match his own, and Vivek Ramaswamy abandoned his candidacy and threw his support to Mr. Trump. No-hoper Ron DeSantis helped him by finishing second, ahead of Ms. Haley.
Trump’s dominance in Iowa raises question about whether Haley vs. DeSantis even matters
If Ms. Haley somehow takes New Hampshire, she would then have to win her home state of South Carolina, where she badly trails in the polls. But then comes Super Tuesday, which features many states where the Trump lead is wide, including the biggest delegate-vote-giver of them all, California.
Mr. Trump’s victory in Iowa and his easy march to the nomination is all the more impressive and stunning when you consider his track record since losing the 2020 election. He has piled up embarrassment upon embarrassment – the Jan. 6 insurrection, multiple felony charges, the sexual-abuse liability finding, the 2022 midterms failure, etc. – and yet all it has done is strengthen him with the party base. He continues to defy logic. The more sordid his deeds, the more popular among Republicans he becomes.
To be emphasized here is that the appeal is pretty much limited to his paleo-conservative base, which includes the least educated segment of the American population, a tranche that his demagoguery and lies prey upon. While his base is large and renders him pack-animal loyalty, it has not been big enough to score any impressive wins for the party since 2016.
What will make Mr. Trump more formidable in the presidential election is a vice-presidential choice that helps him avoid the extremist trap in which the Democrats will try and lock him up.
Here’s the thing. Should Nikki Haley be his veep pick, look out Joe Biden. She could do much to reduce the scare factor of another Trump presidency. Thus far, she won’t deny being interested in the job. But even if she is willing, it’s doubtful Mr. Trump will be wise enough to pick her. He’ll want a sycophant.
Lawrence Martin