A year ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's odds of being re-elected did not look promising.
The loyalty of even her most ardent supporters was being tested as a result of the Chancellor's open-door policy when it came to refugees pouring in from war-torn Syria and elsewhere. By the time she decided to shut the gates, Germany had a million new people – and many weren't happy about it. It helped put wind in the sails of the ultraright Alternative for Germany party.
But 12 months later, and with a federal election just a few weeks away, Ms. Merkel is no longer as vulnerable as she once appeared. After a dozen years on the job, she's learned when to make course corrections – one German writer recently said that as a "navigator of the public psyche" Ms. Merkel is a phenomenon – which is precisely what she did with her policy on asylum seekers. Germany had done its part, she declared, now it was time for other countries to do theirs.
It may not be the sole reason the German public seems ready to give the 63-year-old Ms. Merkel a fourth term. (The latest polls have the Chancellor and her centre-right Christian Democrat Union party as much as 18 points ahead of the Social Democrats, led by Martin Schulz). The fact is, her low-key (see excruciatingly subdued), hyperintellectualized approach to governing seems like the perfect antidote for the perilous, unstable times we live in.
In a more secure period, Germans might be tempted to give someone else a chance to govern the republic for a while. But now is not that time. And then there is also the not-insignificant fact that very little differentiates Ms. Merkel's party from Mr. Schulz's.
This was made evident in the one and only televised leaders' debate, which took place last week. Ms. Merkel is not a scintillating public speaker. She doesn't have a natural charisma that can beguile a television audience. And yet she was most everyone's pick as the easy winner on the night. She didn't need to be great because Mr. Schulz did such a poor job of distinguishing his party's vision for Germany with Ms. Merkel's CDU.
Outside of the country, Ms. Merkel has never been a hotter commodity. She certainly has never been as popular with the global commentariat. U.S. President Donald Trump has something to do with that; actually, a lot. She is the anti-Trump, a brilliant physicist whose idea of fun is attending the Bayreuth Wagner festival, which she never misses. Where Mr. Trump is a crass, inward-looking isolationist, Ms. Merkel is a sophisticated, unabashed fan of globalization. Yes, she can come across as dour, nerdy and drab. But she is so uncool, she's cool.
While she doesn't trade in slamming other world leaders, even when she vehemently disagrees with them, she isn't above taking them on, either, often with searing literary precision. Russian President Vladimir Putin found this out a few years ago. Knowing Ms. Merkel feared dogs after being bitten by one, he had his big, black Labrador, Koni, brought into a photo op with the German Chancellor, no doubt hoping she would exhibit some public discomfort as the dog went over and started sniffing her. Mr. Putin leaned backed in his chair and smirked.
When asked about it afterwards, Ms. Merkel was blunt: "I understand why he [Putin] has to do this – to prove he's a man … He's afraid of his own weakness."
Not everyone loves Ms. Merkel, however. Just this week she was hit by a tomato at a campaign rally. She barely flinched, of course, and blithely retrieved a tissue from her purse to wipe the remnants of the vegetable off of her trademark blazer. At an earlier rally, she was heckled and jeered by some people in the crowd, screaming "liar" and "traitor of the people."
Others point out that although Ms. Merkel's party seems to have a large lead in the polls, there is also a sizable undecided element – as much as 40 per cent. But the German leader also has a knack for sucking the excitement out of campaigns, lulling voters who might oppose her to sleep and giving them the impression there isn't much at stake. There is even a name for this strategy: asymmetrical demobilization.
My guess is Ms. Merkel will be just fine. She will coast to victory at a time when Europe and the world may need her more than her own country.
Gary Mason