Russia has the capacity to keep fighting in Ukraine for two more years, Lithuania says

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A senior official in Lithuania’s defence ministry said that while he’s optimistic Ukraine can win the war with Russia, his government nevertheless believes Moscow has the capacity to keep fighting for two more years.

Zilvinas Tomkus, vice-minister of national defence for Lithuania, was in Ottawa last week as part of visits with NATO allies to set expectations for the NATO leaders’ summit scheduled for July in Vilnius.

Lithuania is trying to build consensus for an agreement to station more air defence systems on the eastern flank of the military alliance as a deterrent to Russia.

He said Russia is girding itself to “outsuffer” and outlive its opponents in Ukraine. “We say that Russia has capability to continue this war for two years, two years from now,” Mr. Tomkus said in a recent interview.

Mr. Tomkus also laid out these concerns at a speech to the University of South Florida last week, where he cautioned against underestimating Russia even though its February, 2022, assault of Ukraine has turned into a grinding war of attrition.

“We have to look at the facts: Russia is restoring its military capabilities and is able not only to continue this war, but is also making preparations for a long conflict,” he told the audience in Florida.

“More importantly, Russia is not abandoning its strategic goals: to destroy Ukraine as an independent country and directly or indirectly fight the West,” Mr. Tomkus said.

On the alliance’s eastern flank, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has tested a French Air Force MAMBA surface-based air and missile defence system in Romania, on the border with Ukraine.

But Lithuania is seeking more. According to public broadcaster Lithuanian Radio and Television (LRT), there are allied Patriot long-range air defence systems deployed in countries bordering Ukraine. However, Baltic countries are also asking NATO for more of these types of systems, since they are too expensive for them to procure on their own, LRT reported in March.

Ukraine is expected to begin a spring counteroffensive soon and Mr. Tomkus said the coming few months will be critical to the course of the war. A limiting factor remains the lack of bullets and shells available, he said.

“Ukraine desperately needs ammunition.”

The Lithuanian defence official said the West has to start planning for Russia’s defeat and what that will look like.

“We, the Western community, seem to agree that Ukraine must win, but at the same time, we are afraid of Russia’s defeat,” he said in his speech at the University of South Florida last week. “We cannot imagine a political map without a strong Russia, even as our adversary. We have to change this thinking, and start thinking about Russia’s defeat in very realistic terms.”

In the immediate term, however, he said it’s unreasonable for Western defence analysts to think an attack by Russia on NATO states is out of the question. Vladimir Putin’s land forces are being ground down in Ukraine but Russia has plenty of missile systems and fighters left.

That’s why NATO’s eastern flank, bordering Belarus and Russia, needs more uniform air defence coverage. “We cannot exclude this: that Russia might miscalculate in the future and attack NATO territory as well.

“So that’s why we say that we have to do everything, to do everything now not to talk about how not to provoke Russia, how not to escalate Russia, but to do everything, to be prepared to defend against and deter Russia,” he said Friday.

Canada may come under pressure at the Vilnius summit about levels of defence spending. Canada first promised to try to spend 2 per cent of annual economic output on defence in 2014 at a NATO summit in Wales but has never reached this goal. In 2022, NATO said Canada’s defence spending as a share of gross domestic product was 1.27 per cent.

U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said in February that alliance countries will make a new spending pledge this July.

“In Vilnius, our leaders will agree on a new defence investment pledge to ensure that the alliance has the resources to carry out these new plans,” Mr. Austin told reporters in Brussels. “We look forward to working with our valued allies to ensure that we all do even more to invest in our shared security.”

Mr. Tomkus said Lithuanians believe NATO members should boost their military spending in the face of the threat from Russia, which a year ago ignited the biggest conflict in Europe since the Second World War.

“We are in the camp of saying that all allies have to commit to invest more to defence. And that, you know, 2 per cent should be a bottom line, not the ceiling,” the vice-minister said.