It's that time of year again when newspaper columnists, eager to make themselves appear smarter than they actually are, look back at all the prescient predictions they made.
And just to show that they're mortals after all, they throw in one or two laughers for good measure.
Well, sorry to say that our laughers this year outnumbered the prescient predictions. But don't blame us. We didn't invent the subprime mortgage or the collateralized debt obligation.
That's our story and we're sticking to it.
Here, then, is a look back at the good, the bad and the horrible predictions of 2008 from the friendly folks at Market Moves.
The good
McDonald's: Mickey D's is one of just two Dow Jones industrial average stocks that are up this year (the other is Wal-Mart). Which makes us feel pretty good, because we wrote in January that a selloff in the fast-food chain's stock was a tasty buying opportunity. Since then, it's risen 20 per cent.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan: Through a combination of careful analysis and blind luck, we wrote in February that the fertilizer maker was vulnerable to a pullback, even as most analysts still called it a "buy." The stock fetched about $159 at the time, but after the commodity bubble burst it fell off a cliff, closing yesterday at $90 for a loss of 43 per cent.
Loblaw: In March, we called a bottom in Loblaw's battered stock, noting that insiders were buying and that the Weston family might decide to take the grocer private. The shares are up 17 per cent since then, as speculation about a Weston buyout intensifies and Loblaw's operating results improve.
Marvel Entertainment : In April, with Iron Man - Marvel's first self-produced film - about to hit theatres, we argued that the stock could be poised for superhero-sized gains because the company stood to cash in on its self-financed releases. The stock is up 7 per cent since then.
The bad
Canadian banks: As fans of dividend stocks, we couldn't believe our luck when bank shares started falling. What a great buying opportunity, we thought, as we penned a story in January suggesting "it's hard to go wrong with Canadian banks." Actually, it's quite easy. Since the story appeared, the S&P/TSX financial services index is down, oh, about 40 per cent.
Dr Pepper Snapple Group: We've never really liked the taste of Dr Pepper, so we should have known better than to say the stock could turn out to be "surprisingly refreshing" for investors. Surprisingly disgusting is more like it. The soda maker is off 33 per cent since we wrote about it in May, as the U.S. economy sinks deeper into recession.
Power Corp.: When we suggested in March that shares of Power had been driven down to bargain-basement levels, little did we know that there was a bargain sub-basement, and beyond that, a bargain sub-sub-basement, which is where you'll find Power residing right now. Total loss since we made the mistake of writing about this weakling: 31 per cent.
The horrible
Funny, we don't remember drinking heavily on April 17. But in one fell swoop, we managed to pick four of the absolute worst stocks investors could have owned this year. Every last one turned out to be a total stinker.
There was Starbucks, which, we gushed, "has a great brand, sells an addictive product and still has plenty of room to grow." Except that it's now closing stores as consumers who are sick of paying five bucks for a cup of Joe flee to McDonald's and Dunkin' Donuts.
There was General Electric, whose shares subsequently collapsed as the credit crisis hammered its finance arm. There was teen retailer American Eagle Outfitters, which has been pounded by the precipitous drop in consumer spending. And there was USG, a drywall manufacturer whose shares - what a surprise! - kept sinking as the housing market plumbed new depths. On average, these stocks are down 52 per cent since I wrote about them.
We're not proud of that, but we have learned one thing from the past year: We never want to be a fund manager.
John Heinzl