The sharp end of this hockey season has more hinging on it than most. While the Stanley Cup playoffs are always a special time of the year, this year's postseason will be the last before the Vancouver Olympics, and the final chance for players to show Team Canada management how they fare under real pressure.
Globesports.com's Hall of Fame hockey writer Eric Duhatschek has been leading a monthly panel, including TSN analyst Pierre McGuire and nine-time Stanley Cup-winning coach Scotty Bowman, to look at who should by pulling on the Maple Leaf sweater, now that a design has finally been agreed on, next February.
Mr. Duhatschek has also been paying close attention to the playoff races, particularly out West, where the Oilers are desperately trying to join the Flames and Canucks in the second season.
Globesports.com welcomed Mr. Duhatschek for a reader discussion Monday on who should form the final list of 23, and who will prevail through the months of April, May and June.
Your questions and Mr. Duhatschek's answers appear at the bottom of this page.
Eric Duhatschek was the winner of the Hockey Hall Of Fame's Elmer Ferguson award for "distinguished contributions to hockey writing" in 2001. A graduate of the University of Western Ontario's grad school of journalism, he began covering hockey in 1978 and after spending 20 years covering the NHL and the Calgary Flames, he joined The Globe and Mail to write hockey columns and features.
A former contributor to Hockey Night in Canada's Satellite Hot Stove segment, Duhatschek now appears weekly on TSN's That's Hockey with Gino Reda. He has covered most of the past 30 Stanley Cup championships, along with four Winter Olympics, every Canada Cup and World Cup since 1981, plus two world championships. He was the inaugural winner of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association's writing award for top game story for his account of the sixth game of the 2004 Stanley Cup final between Calgary and Tampa and has been a finalist for Canada's national newspaper awards. In 2003, he was appointed to the Hockey Hall Of Fame's annual Selection Committee and is now ninth in seniority on that 18-man body.
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Steve McAllister, editor, globesports.com: Eric, thanks as always for taking an hour from a busy time of year for you to chat hockey. I'm sure you share the sentiments of NHL fans who are enjoying the wild ride to the end of the regular season on Sunday.
Eric Duhatschek: I am Steve; you'd think, after all these years - this is 29 and counting for me on the NHL beat - you'd get a little jaded, but I can't say that's true. I'm watching the NHL Network's highlight package every night; last night, I stayed with the Vancouver-Colorado game until the bitter end, figuring the Canucks had something left to give in the third period; and realizing in the end, I was wrong. Two games in two nights was too much for them and I'm sure they're playing with heavy hearts, given the tragedy that affected their teammate Taylor Pyatt, who lost his fiancé in that car accident in Jamaica last week.
Every morning, I do the calculations and permutations, with the newspaper in hand. Calgary, for example, plays at home against the Los Angeles Kings tonight. If they win that game, they can go into Vancouver on Tuesday night and with a victory over the Canucks, sew up top spot in the Northwest Division, which would be a big achievement for them, given their injuries on defence and the perception that goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff can use a day or two off before the playoffs begin. Can the Flames get it together for a big push in these next 48 hours and then buy themselves an eight-day period of grace with back-to-back wins? Who knows? But's that the beauty of these tight playoff races this year. Everybody - from Detroit and San Jose - at the top of the Western conference, battling for home-ice - to those four teams in the middle, jockeying for position - to the race at the bottom end for the final two playoff spots - is fighting for something. And while it's more settled in the East - six down, essentially really just the Rangers and Panthers battling for the eighth spot, that logjam in the middle, with Philadelphia, Carolina, Pittsburgh and Montreal, all sorting out their respective first-round dance partners, is dramatic as well. Could Pittsburgh actually face Washington in the first round? Crosby and Malkin vs. Ovechkin and Semin? Could Detroit ultimately face Anaheim in the first round? The reigning champions against the '07 champions? Depending upon how things unfold in this final week, there could be some fascinating match-ups in the opening round.
Steve McAllister: OK, here we go with the questions Eric. Ed Frehner from Detroit writes, Hi Eric, enjoying your work this season, as always. Is it safe to assume that San Jose and the Red Wings will meet in the Western Conference final?
Eric Duhatschek replies: Is it logical to assume that? Yes. Is it safe? No. I saw both the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks play live in Calgary on back-to-back Mondays and those two teams perfectly illustrate why everybody loves the NHL playoffs and especially why everybody loves the first round. They are both excellent teams, and at different times can be wildly entertaining, but each has a potential Achilles heel; in Detroit, it's goaltending; and in San Jose, it is the weight of heavy expectation.
Mike Babcock, the Red Wings' coach, had a great answer when asked about the upcoming playoffs, noting how that opening round is always a mine field, because whichever team happens to grab that seventh or eighth spot is on a high - they've obviously finished strong and now anything they can accomplish in the playoffs is a bonus, so they play loose and freely, the way Atlanta and some of these other also-rans have in the past little while. Meanwhile, the pressure is heavy on those who wear the crown, so to speak. In short, there are no sure things for either the Red Wings or the Sharks and if teams of that calibre are vulnerable, well, you'd have to think that there are a lot of teams thinking, 'why not us?' going into the first round.
Steve McAllister: Thanks Eric. Robert Lynch from Milwaukee writes: Dear Eric, Do you think the Ducks have enough talent to make a run in the West? Thank you.
Eric Duhatschek: I do. Notwithstanding last night's loss to San Jose, which was mainly a function of their inability to stay out of the penalty box, I've been really impressed with the Ducks play down the stretch. I caught them live in Edmonton last week and two things really stuck out - one, their two top defence pairs are solid, Scott Niedermayer playing with one newcomer, James Wisniewski, and Chris Pronger playing with the other, Ryan Whitney. Up front, I'm not sure if there is a hotter line in the NHL right now than Ryan Getzlaf, with Corey Perry and Bobby Ryan - they're big, strong and win a lot of puck battles down low. Add in Teemu Selanne's exceptional power-play success - prorated, when you subtract the games he's missed because of injury - he is still the most dynamic sniper in the league with the man advantage, even at his advanced age. Jonas Hiller obviously will be the question mark - can he hold up in goal? The match-up could be tricky as well. I don't know if Anaheim can catch Columbus for sixth spot, so in order to make a run, they'll need to knock off the two powerhouses, Detroit and San Jose, in back-to-back series - a tough assignment to be sure. But personnel-wise, I think they have a lot more than either Nashville or St. Louis to potentially get the job done.
Steve McAllister: Let's keep it rolling, Eric. James Cooke from New York City writes: Hi Eric, Great work on the weekly Friday column. It is by far some of the best hockey coverage available anywhere. I wondered if you could comment on the New York Rangers. Whether or not the team makes the playoffs, it seems to me that the team's long-term future is bleak, given the lengthy and costly contracts signed by players such as Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Wade Redden and Michael Rozsival. How does Glen Sather still have a job, especially since the team quickly tossed away the post-lockout idea of developing a young team?
In the same vein, how does Brian Murray still have a job in Ottawa, given the horrid decisions he has made over the past few years? He let Zdeno Chara go to Boston as a free agent, choosing to keep Redden. After Redden left a year later, nothing to show for either player. And now Peter Chiarelli, who used to work under Murray, is running the show in Boston, Chara is playing well and the Bruins are a serous threat to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup finals ...Thank you.
Eric Duhatschek replies: Thanks for the kind words re: the Friday column, they are greatly appreciated. You've got a lot of ground to cover here, so I'll try to keep it short. Glen Sather largely survives because of a long-standing relationship with James Dolan, the Rangers' owner. He has done little in the past half-dozen years to suggest he understands the machinations of operating in the new NHL. The Hockey News rated him 28th out of 30 NHL GMs; that in itself, is telling. Realistically, Sather's best move came when he took Jaromir Jagr off the Washington Capitals' hands in the pre-salary cap era and got him for half-price because the Caps took back half the contract. You can't do that any more in the new NHL, something Leafs GM Brian Burke wants to change. And although the Rangers are younger than you think, I don't see a lot of blue-chip prospects coming down the pipe - Marc Staal is probably the best player they've drafted in years; why they spent all that money on Redden last summer was a mystery to everyone in the NHL.
As for Ottawa, the critical error came in the last days of the John Muckler regime when they had to decide between Redden and Chara and picked the wrong guy. Chara, on that Ottawa team, would add grit and skill. With him in the lineup, I think the Senators are a playoff team.
Steve McAllister: Eric, the Sens' pain is certainly the Bruins' gain. Next question comes from al rain who writes: Eric, Please clarify how playoff seeding works after the first round. I've always been unclear on this. Many thanks for taking my question.
Eric Duhatschek writes: It's fairly simple really. The division winners get the top three seeds in order of points. That never varies. So if Calgary gets through the opening round as a third seed and someone above them gets upset in the opening round, they move up. The flaw, as your question implies, is that occasionally a team with more points in the standings will be seeded below a team that wins a division and automatically is guaranteed the higher seed. But based on this year's standings, I don't see that happening after the first round in the East. It could in the West. Chicago will likely be a fourth seed, even though they'll probably finish with more points than whichever team, Vancouver or Calgary, nails down the No. 3 seed as the Northwest Division champion.
Steve McAllister: Thanks Eric. Cactus Puck from Canada writes: I enjoy reading your work Eric. I have two questions. Why don't players use wooden sticks instead of composites when on the penalty kill? Composites are more likely to break, potentially putting the team down another man. Yes, players would have to get used to wooden sticks on the penalty kill, but they could do so in practice. The idea on the kill is to prevent goals, not score goals which the purpose of composites. As currently calculated, powerplay efficiency is a very deceiving statistic as a team is 0 for 1 on the power play if it takes a penalty 10 seconds into a power play. How about calculating power play efficiency by dividing total time on the power play by the number of power play goals? (Time on the power play would be ended by either the team scoring, taking a penalty or the power play expiring.) This method would account for shorter power plays (ended by taking a penalty or scoring), expired power plays and major penalty power plays. It would provide a measure of how long it takes before a team scores on the power play; good power play teams would require less time to score compared to poor power play teams and this method would account for the frequently occurring shorter power plays.
Eric Duhatschek answers: I'm glad you submitted your question early; sadly, I didn't know enough about stick technology to answer definitely, but on Sunday, at Flames' practice, I asked someone who did: Gus Thorson, Calgary's long-serving equipment manager. The Flames still have one player, Adrian Aucoin, who uses a wooden stick. According to Gus, even wooden sticks these days are fibre-glassed reinforced, so they're not the same as those heavy 10-pound Titans that Gretzky used to drag around the ice. Gus also said Aucoin's sticks break with the same frequency as the players who use a composite; the only difference is that they break differently, more in the blade, less in the shaft. In other words, a wooden stick wouldn't necessarily explode in your hands the way a composite sometimes can - and maybe that would make a difference to a player, killing a penalty, who is theoretically in a defensive position for most of that shift. Yours is an interesting theory because if golfers use different clubs situationally, why couldn't hockey players do the same? But again, Gus's belief is that players tend to be so finicky about their sticks, for the most part, that once they get a brand and a pattern they feel comfortable with, you'd be hard-pressed to get them to change, especially in the midst of a game.
As to your method of assessing power-play efficiency, yes, absolutely, it would make the stat more accurate.
Steve McAllister: Great stuff Eric. We're on the home stretch. Leafs 4-ever in Toronto writes: I know you're based in Calgary, but I'd like to get your take on the Buds. There's a commonly held view around here that there's little incentive for the team to take concrete steps toward winning because of the club's economic success and standing in the community (with an endless list of would-be ticket buyers). The Ontario Teachers Pension Plan often is blamed for all this. Is any of this legit? Or is it just a case of bad luck over an extended period (like the Chicago Cubs in baseball)? From what you have seen, has Brian Burke taken positive steps in his first season in charge?
Eric Duhatschek answers: Honestly, I've heard that criticism of the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan for years and I don't buy it. If anything, I think their long history of ownership coincides with a period in which they were trying too hard to win in the present and frequently sacrificed fewer assets to do so. Anybody remember the ill-fated Owen Nolan trade? Last time I checked, Brad Boyes was leading the St. Louis Blues in scoring. And while the draft choice that went San Jose's way that year (21st overall in 2003) ended up in Boston, the Bruins taking Mark Stuart, anyone with a passing knowledge of draft history knows 2003 was one of the greatest crops of young talent in history. Ryan Kesler went 23rd that year; Mike Richards 24th; Corey Perry 28th. Imagine how far along the rebuilding curve the Leafs would be if only they could undo that one single transaction and then have made the draft choice count? No, I really believe that even in a salary-cap era, orderly rebuilding is the only way to go, and although it is hard to see a pattern yet in Brian Burke's first few months on the job, he is an experienced enough hockey man (and student of history) to understand what will be required to really, legitimately get the franchise a solid foundation - instead of the patchwork quilt it's been in years gone by.
Steve McAllister: A couple of more questions, Eric, and we'll let you go to move on to other puck-related matters. Ray Zerrudo from Pickering writes: Here's my question from the Centre of the Hockey Universe. Just how good are Hanson [AMP;]Bozak going to turn out? Do you consider them equivalent to 1st or 2nd rounders?
Eric Duhatschek answers: I don't want to pretend I know either Hanson or Bozek enough to evaluate their potential because I've never seen them play. Scouts tell me both have a chance to be pretty good. How good? No one can say at this early stage. Sometimes, the adjustment to the NHL game and life has as much to do with personality and what's between the ears as it does pure raw talent. But what I like about the moves is that Burke is following a blueprint that worked for him in Anaheim. Why did the Ducks win in '07? Partly because of the moves to draft Getzlaf and Perry in the first round of the '03 draft; partly because of their success in the U.S. college free agent market. Andy McDonald was a free agent, as was Dustin Penner. Penner, despite his struggles in Edmonton, gave the Ducks 29 goals the year they won the Cup. And McDonald led them in playoff goal-scoring. Accordingly, these are worthwhile gambles. If even one of them can play as a top-six forward and they get Luke Schenn's younger brother in the draft next year, well, that's two more young pieces of the rebuilding puzzle in place. And as the previous question implied, the Leafs have only one real advantage over most other NHL organizations - the power of the wallet. May as well use that power here, as anywhere else.
Steve McAllister: Absolutely right, Eric. Next question. Anson Boeheim from Winnipeg writes: Hi Eric. The push for the playoffs in both conferences has been fun to follow. But realistically, do these teams that grab the final spots have any hope of enjoying long post-season runs?
Eric Duhatschek answers: I don't have the exact stat in front of me, but I believe the last time a team outside the top five in overall points won the Stanley Cup was the '95 Devils, in the lockout-shortened 1994-95 season. Prior to that, it was Montreal's miracle run in '93, which was fuelled by a monumental first-round upset - an 87-point New York Islanders team taking out the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions, Pittsburgh, who'd had a 119-point season; basically didn't lose a game in the final two months; and on paper, probably had the best team in franchise history. My point, I guess, is that Cinderella can occasionally surprise in the opening rounds; but the history of the past 15 or so seasons suggests the clock always strikes midnight before they're actually sipping champagne from the Cup.
Steve McAllister: Scott Andrews from Bolton, ON writes - Eric, I find myself rooting for both the Predators and Blues to make the playoffs because Barry Trotz and Andy Murray seem to be getting the most out of their players. Can you please write a little bit about the two coaches? And Firing Line from Canada writes: Trotz, MacTavish, Ruff … All three could miss the playoffs. Do all three keep their jobs?
Eric Duhatschek answers: To both your queries, Barry Trotz has zero chance of being fired; considering what he's done with that Predators team, he is likely getting Man Of The Year honours. Ruff, too, I believe is safe; I haven't heard any words of discouragement from Buffalo's management about his job; you may see a few of their players moved in the offseason, however. MacTavish is a different story. I was in Edmonton last week for that circus surrounding his future, which culminated with owner Daryl Katz sending a text message to the team's radio crew that MacT is going nowhere. Of course, that's the thing about texts. They are short and thus vague. It could mean MacTavish is back as coach; it could also mean that they will mutually agree for him to step down at full salary so someone else can have a shot at it, and find him another job in the organization. Because he's a relatively new owner, Katz has no track record, whereby you can make an educated guess. But my hunch is they'll make a change there.
As for Andy Murray, what I like about him is he is so stubborn and so determined and so able to keep his focus on the plan - which is to develop players first and foremost; and that's something they've done really well this year. They're not just winning because of Keith Tkachuk; they are winning because Boyes, Backes, Perron and Oshie are playing meaningful minutes down the stretch and getting valuable on-the-job training.
Steve McAllister: We're almost finished, Eric. Sarah Smythe from Ottawa writes: Hello Eric. Can you help me with my hockey pool? Wondering who's going to come out of the Eastern Conference. Thanks.
Eric Duhatschek answers: I know they're not the sexy choice, but I'm going to pick Boston coming out of the East, which I also did two weeks ago, on our podcast, when the Bruins were down and out and everybody was ripping on them. And I know all the potential pitfalls - too small with the exception of Milan Lucic up front; too inexperienced; and what if they ever get Montreal in the first round? That always ends badly. But I think they'll get a winnable opponent in the first round, where Washington and New Jersey are going to have to work for their success. And depending upon match-ups, which will be really critical in the East, Pittsburgh is a dangerous floater.
Steve McAllister: Tom Fagner from St John's Canada writes: Hello Eric Mike Richards has GOT to be a part of our Olympic team in Vancouver - if Sakic is officially retired by then why not usher in a new era of Canadians by making Richards team captain?
Eric Duhatschek answers: Every body I've talked to agrees with your starting point - that Mike Richards, barring injury, is a shoo-in for Canada's 2010 Olympic team; he's just such a great versatile player, can take faceoffs, kill penalties and maybe, in a game when your top guns are not firing on all cylinders, chip in a valuable goal as well. As captain though, it's probably too soon - and I would suggest that on a team that will presumably include Jarome Iginla, Shane Doan and probably Scott Niedermayer, he probably wouldn't feel ready to lead that group, not at this stage of his career. But assuming NHL participation in the Olympics continues beyond 2010, I'd say there's little doubt that he will eventually be captain of one of Canada's Olympic teams.
Steve McAllister: Eric Legein from Chicoutimi, Que., writes: Eric, do you think/hope the days are over where the number of players who hail from Quebec is an issue in selecting the Olympic team?
Eric Duhatschek answers: Most reasonable people want Steve Yzerman and Co. to select the best possible Canadian team, no matter which province a player hails from. I don't think Yzerman's team will be influenced at all by birth place; they will, in all probability, select at least four players from Quebec - Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis - because they deserve to play. Seems like a prudent and reasonable course of action to me.
Steve McAllister: Final question, Eric. Jonas Emilsson from Calgary Canada writes: Hi Eric, What are your thoughts on the parity between teams that we're currently seeing? I can't remember a previous scenario where so many teams could potentially win it all. Is this what we should expect every year now on? Thanks.
Eric Duhatschek answers: Parity is here to stay as long as the NHL continues to operate under the current salary-cap system, which is in place until 2011 at minimum and - in my inexpert opinion - beyond that as well. Notwithstanding some of the hissing that's going on between owners and players over escrow issues, it's working relatively well for both sides at the moment. And as to the unprecedented parity, you're right. I go back to an era when teams with 30 wins or fewer would qualify for post-season play - a lot of bad Hartford teams made it in the past because a lot of bad Quebec teams were worse. There used to be a lot of talk about meaningless regular-season play back in the day; you don't hear that so much anymore, do you? And even though I firmly dislike the concept of the three-point game - or specifically, the inequity of awarding three points in the standings for some results and two points for others - everybody goes into the season knowing the rules; so any moaning about them at this late stage of the proceedings is only sour grapes.
Thanks to everyone who submitted questions today; I always enjoy the dialogue with readers and hope we can do it again at some point before the playoffs end.
Steve McAllister: Thank you, Eric. I know globesports.com readers look forward to your coverage through the final week of the regular season and then the NHL's spring fling for the Stanley Cup.