Poland votes for change as final tally shows ruling PiS party has lost its majority

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The final results from Sunday’s election in Poland have confirmed that a group of opposition parties has won a comfortable majority, setting the country up for a seismic shift in direction.

The National Electoral Commission said Tuesday that the final tally showed the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) had won 35.4 per cent of the vote, followed by the main opposition party, Civic Platform (KO), with 30.7 per cent.

Two smaller parties expected to form a coalition with KO – the centre-right Third Way and the Left – took 14.4 per cent and 8.6 per cent respectively. The three parties will have a total of 248 seats in the 460-seat legislature known as the Sejm.

PiS had been in power since 2015 and pursued a populist agenda that critics say trampled on democratic norms and curtailed rights for women. The government also frequently clashed with the European Union, which has held back about €110-billion ($158-billion) in funding.

Sunday’s vote proved that much of the country had grown tired of PiS. Voter turnout topped 74 per cent, the highest since the end of communist rule in 1989, and was well over 80 per cent in several large cities, including Warsaw, where the turnout hit 85 per cent.

PiS also failed to generate much support for a controversial referendum held in conjunction with the election. It included highly charged questions about immigration, which the ruling party hoped would rally its support. But only 40 per cent of voters took part, well below the 50-per-cent threshold required for the results to be binding.

The opposition victory was driven largely by strong support among young people and women. Nearly 69 per cent of 18-to-29-year-olds voted Sunday, according to exit polls, and 63 per cent voted for one of the opposition parties. Just over 32 per cent of women backed KO, while 29 per cent picked PiS.

Poland’s strict abortion law, which has been tightened under PiS, was a major issue for many voters and likely helped boost the turnout. Civic Platform Leader Donald Tusk has promised to increase access to abortion and contraception.

“It was extremely important for women in Poland because we were under the strongest attack,” said Barbara Nowacka, who campaigned largely on the issue of abortion rights and was re-elected a KO member of parliament. The election victory “is a first step. We have to implement many laws that would secure women’s safety.”

It could still be a couple of months before a new government takes office. The three opposition parties have to negotiate a formal coalition agreement, and PiS has signalled that it won’t go quietly.

PiS leaders have insisted their party should be given the first crack at forming a government – and have a strong ally in President Andrzej Duda, who will have to select a prime minister. “We will definitely try to build a parliamentary majority,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters Monday.

However, none of the other parties, including the far-right Confederation, which won 18 seats, has agreed to work with PiS. Civic Platform leaders have urged Mr. Duda to appoint Mr. Tusk as prime minister so a new administration can take over quickly.

“People are waiting for the first decisions,” Mr. Tusk said Tuesday. “I would like to ask the President for energetic and quick decisions. The winning democratic parties are in constant contact and are ready to take over government at any time.”

Mr. Tusk, 66, has vowed to breathe new life into Polish democracy by rolling back changes PiS has made to the state media and the judiciary, which critics say have become highly politicized. He also hopes to unblock the EU funding and improve Poland’s relationship with Brussels, where he spent five years as president of the European Council, a key EU institution.

Borys Budka, who heads KO’s parliamentary caucus, said there had been fears that if PiS were re-elected, the party would slowly pull Poland out of the EU. “These people are against democracy, so this is why we are so happy that we really stopped Polexit,” he said after Sunday’s vote.

The government will have to confront a sluggish economy and a soaring deficit. Public finances have been constrained by the recent increases in spending on social benefits and the military. That could make it difficult for Mr. Tusk to fulfill several election promises, including a pay raise for teachers, cutting taxes and hiking subsidies for homeowners and renters.

Whatever changes the new government attempts to make, PiS will remain a formidable opponent.

Mr. Duda will have the power to veto legislation, and the opposition did not win enough seats in the Sejm to overturn a presidential veto. PiS appointees also remain in control of the National Bank and the Constitutional Tribunal, which rules on whether laws comply with the constitution.