Outlandish conspiracies at front and centre of U.S. midterm elections

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Twice a week, Carol Reed dresses up as the Statue of Liberty and rallies with her fellow Republicans along an arterial road in the Detroit suburbs.

The retired administrative assistant believes the government controls the weather by spraying chemicals in the air, that people are being tracked via COVID-19 vaccinations and, like millions of other election deniers, that the 2020 presidential vote was rigged.

“We need leaders who are awake, not woke,” said Ms. Reed, 75, one warm autumn afternoon as passing transport trucks blew their horns in approval of her group’s election signs. “Once you’re awake, you can’t go back to sleep.”

A few years ago, such outlandish conspiracism would have been confined to the margins of U.S. politics. But it is front and centre in Tuesday’s midterms, which will decide control of Congress and the governments of several key states.

More than 300 election deniers are running for office across the country. Hot-button cultural issues are jostling with more immediate economic concerns for voters’ attention. And former president Donald Trump is reportedly ready to launch a 2024 comeback bid if the results favour his approved candidates.

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Polling shows the Republicans poised for major gains, as the Democrats try frantically to protect their narrow congressional majority.

On the campaign trail, President Joe Biden is warning that “ultra MAGA” candidates would use the levers of power to overturn future elections and set the country on the path to autocracy. “What’s at stake is not just the policy of the moment, but institutions that have held us together,” Mr. Biden declared in a speech near the Capitol. “American democracy is under attack.”

Also at stake for the President is his ability to pursue his agenda. A Republican-controlled Congress would certainly block his plans to institute paid parental leave and free community college and might also dial back military aid to Ukraine.

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In almost every competitive Senate race – North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire – the Republican candidate is an election denier. It’s a similar story in gubernatorial votes.

This dynamic, ironically, was partly caused by the Democrats’ own campaign groups. Assuming it would be easier to defeat more extreme candidates, Democratic Super PACs spent money this year to help far-right contenders eliminate more moderate Republican candidates in the primaries. That strategy may now backfire.

There is also the prospect that the results of tight races will not be known for days as mail-in ballots are counted. That could open the door to some candidates casting doubt on the results, following Mr. Trump’s 2020 playbook. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Republicans are already suing to disqualify some absentee votes.

Fears of election-related violence are also high, particularly after last month’s invasion of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s home. David DePape, the 42-year-old Canadian accused in that case of beating Ms. Pelosi’s husband with a hammer, had filled a blog with election denialism.

On the hustings, Republicans are leaning heavily into Trumpian wedge issues to excite their base. Among other things, they are pledging to crack down on undocumented immigrants and ban discussion of LGBTQ issues in schools.

“These teachers are bringing their personal values to children. Get back to teaching kids the basics,” said Pansy Harper, a 66-year-old Republican voter from Ypsilanti, Mich., who also named the U.S.-Mexico border and voter fraud as her top issues.

Talking politics has become increasingly fraught within her family, she said, a sign of the country’s deepening divisions. “There’s no agreeing any more. No one is listening to each other. You can’t have a conversation without someone going off on you.”

Mr. Trump has been rallying in swing states ahead of the elections. In leaks to U.S. media, his circle has said he is ready to announce his 2024 campaign this month, even as he faces criminal investigations into his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

“Let’s talk about the persecution of Donald Trump and the Republican Party,” he told one rally, at which he referred to people arrested in connection with the riot as “political prisoners.”

The Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping progressive voters will be motivated to get to the polls by the Supreme Court’s overturn of abortion protections in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization this summer. Mr. Biden is promising legislation making abortion legal nationwide if his party retains control of Congress, while several states have measures either banning or preserving the procedure on the ballot.

Most polling, however, has shown bread-and-butter issues, including the highest inflation in decades, at the top of voters’ minds, even though they have been secondary in much of the campaigning.

At an advance polling station near Atlanta, Republican supporters blamed Mr. Biden’s big-spending bills for overheating the economy. “I’m tired of inflation. You see it when you go to get gas. It’s killing everybody. The everyday cost of living has gone through the roof,” said Paul Daegling, a 64-year-old master plumber.

To Roni Monteith, a Democratic voter in Orlando, Fla., the culture war in schools is a diversion from more tangible concerns, such as the country’s unaffordable health care. “It’s terrible, people want to control other people’s lives. Some politicians use that to distract from the real issues,” said Ms. Monteith, 63, a non-profit manager.

For her neighbour, Marc Hustad, the country’s founding principles seem to be at stake.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is running for re-election on his record of spurning stay-at-home orders and mask mandates during the pandemic. His campaign signs read: “Keep Florida free.” He has also been one of the Republicans’ leading culture warriors, banning classroom conversations on race and LGBTQ issues.

“It’s a little hypocritical to speak about freedom,” said Mr. Hustad, a 50-year-old engineer, “but then not allow some thoughts to be spoken about or discussed.”