Highlights
- Poloz careful not to allow runaway loonie
- IEA expects little from weekend meeting of oil producers
- What to expect in the Alberta budget
Poloz and the loonie
The Bank of Canada is being cautious not to add fuel to the recent rally in the Canadian dollar, economists say.
Governor Stephen Poloz and his central bank colleagues aren’t trying to talk down the loonie, which they say they don’t do, anyway, but rather making a bid to keep a cap on the gains.
As The Globe and Mail’s Barrie McKenna reports, the central bank noted yesterday that the lower loonie is spurring Canadian exports, but its recent rebound could eat into those trade gains.
That, economists said in the wake of the central bank’s rate decision and monetary policy report, was aimed at muting the reaction to its new, higher forecasts for economic growth.
“The BoC mentioned the stronger C$ as a headwind to the outlook for non-energy exports,” noted Emanuella Enenajor, the North America economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Ian Gordon, one of its currency strategists.
“We see this as gentle jawboning - an attempt to prevent the C$ from strengthening even as they upgrade growth,” they added in a report on the central bank’s comments and decision to hold its benchmark rate at 0.5 per cent.
“Comments in the press conference were more balanced. The governor generally tends to avoid commenting on the C$, so today’s mention is likely a one-off attempt to prevent a sharp market reaction to the GDP upgrades - and not the start of a campaign to weaken the currency.”
Other observers agreed.
The loonie in fact climbed after the release of the report, only to slip back again. So far today, it has traded in a range of 77.5 cents U.S. to 78.2 cents.
And here’s an interesting tidbit from BMO Nesbitt Burns: April is generally a strong month for the loonie, climbing on average by 2.6 per cent.
“This seasonal trend in the C$ extends back over many decades, although it has become even stronger in the past 10 years (the opposite of what rational expectations and efficient markets would suggest),” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.
Since 1972, he pointed out, the loonie has chalked up April gains 29 times, falling in just 14 and registering a flat performance only once.
“It just so happens oil tends to have a good April, as well,” he said in explaining the phenomenon.
“But such a long-standing seasonal factor must reflect something more fundamental ... like the weather. Not that the big C$ declines are in months when snowbirds would be flocking south, and April markets their return.”
Don't expect much
The International Energy Agency is dampening expectations heading into a key meeting of big oil producers in Qatar on Sunday.
Oil prices have generally climbed on the suggestion that the producers will strike a deal to freeze production levels when they meet in Doha.
“We cannot know the outcome but if there is to be a production freeze, rather than a cut, the impact on physical oil supplies will be limited,” the IEA said today in its monthly oil report.
Prices slipped today for several reasons, including a build-up in U.S. crude stockpiles, said London Capital Group chief analyst Brenda Kelly.
“Oil weakness is in part due to this supply glut but caution is also abounding ahead of the Doha meeting,” she said.
Budgets in spotlight
We’ll get an updated look at how the oil shock is hitting home when the Alberta government unveils its budgets today.
“Back in October, Alberta was expecting a $5.4-billion deficit for [fiscal year 2016-17] alongside $61 [West Texas intermediate], but the latter assumption will now likely be scaled back to somewhere closer to $40,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns senior economist Robert Kavcic.
“While the weaker Canadian dollar will cushion the hit somewhat, published budget sensitivities suggest that combination could still lead to a revenue shortfall of around $3-billion, all else equal, and the finance minister has indeed hinted at a deficit of roughly $10-billion (close to 3 per cent of GDP) - stimulus spending will continue in favour of restraint.”