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Ontario’s science advisors say COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions are currently not increasing in the province as vaccination coverage grows.

But new modelling from the science advisory group say the situation is fragile and future projections are wide-ranging.

The group says there’s uncertainty in their predictions because it’s too early to see the impact of in-person schooling and work resuming, and of people possibly spending more time indoors during cold weather.

The models show daily case counts could increase next month and into November, with more than 1,000 cases if the status quo in public behaviour and policy holds, and 5,000 cases daily if transmission increases significantly.

The group says the fourth wave of infections has currently flattened thanks to public health measures and immunizations, which have proven effective at keeping people out of hospital.

But it notes that COVID-19 cases are on the rise among young children who aren’t currently eligible for vaccination.

Ontario COVID-19 Numbers

Ontario is reporting 466 new COVID-19 cases and nine deaths from the virus.

Health Minister Christine Elliott says 347 of the infected people are not vaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status.

She says 119 of the cases are in fully vaccinated people.

The majority of cases are among people between the ages of 20 and 59.

There are 180 hospitalized patients in intensive care with COVID-related critical illness, including 127 people on ventilators.

The province says 86 per cent of residents aged 12 and older have at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose and 80 per cent have received both shots.

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