The Canadian dollar CADUSD weakened to a near five-month low against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Friday as investors seized upon recent economic data to bet the Bank of Canada would begin cutting interest rates before the Federal Reserve.
The loonie was trading 0.6 per cent lower at 1.3765 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.65 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since Nov. 14 at 1.3779.
For the week, the currency was down 1.3 per cent, its biggest weekly decline since May 2023.
“Even though the USD is being bid up across the board, you could see this (CAD weakness) brewing after the employment numbers last Friday,” said Tony Valente, senior FX dealer at AscendantFX.
Data last Friday showed that Canada’s economy surprisingly shed jobs in March and U.S. jobs growth beat expectations.
Since then BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has said a rate cut in June was possible, and U.S. data has showed consumer prices rising more than expected last month.
“With inflation remaining sticky, the Fed has no choice but to push back on rate cuts,” Valente said.
Investors expect the Fed to wait until at least July before easing rates, while they see a roughly 50 per cent chance of a first BoC rate cut in June.
Canadian home sales rose 0.5 per cent in March from February, and were up 1.7 per cent on an annual basis, data from the Canadian Real Estate Association showed.
Canada plans to build nearly 3.9 million houses by 2031 under a new federal initiative, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, as the country grapples with a gulf between demand and supply of accommodation.
Canadian government bond yields fell across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 11.1 basis points at 3.622 per cent, after touching on Thursday its highest intraday level since Nov. 16 at 3.763 per cent.