The Canadian dollar CADUSD was little changed against its broadly weaker U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, holding near a one-month low, as oil prices fell and the Bank of Canada signalled it was approaching the end of its interest rate hiking campaign.
The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3650 to the greenback, or 73.26 U.S. cents, within reach of its weakest level since Nov. 4 at 1.3699 which it touched earlier in the day.
The Canadian dollar was the only G10 currency not to gain ground against the greenback. It initially rallied after the BoC chose to lift interest rates by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points as money markets had expected.
The central bank eliminated the forward guidance it has used since it began cranking rates higher in March, dropping language that said they would have to rise further.
“Our take is we’re in the last throes of the rate tightening cycle and moving pretty close to a hold,” said Darcy Briggs, a portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Canada.
The loonie will rally over the coming year as major commodity consumer China loosens its COVID-19 restrictions and the Federal Reserve potentially shifts course on its rate hike campaign, a Reuters poll showed.
China on Wednesday announced the most sweeping changes to its resolute anti-COVID regime since the pandemic began three years ago.
Still, the price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, settled 3% lower at $72.01 a barrel after U.S. government data showed an unexpectedly large build in fuel stocks.
Canadian government bond yields eased across a more deeply inverted curve but the decline was not as much as for U.S. Treasuries.
The 10-year touched its lowest since Aug. 16 at 2.715% before recovering to 2.756%, down 2 basis points on the day.