Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally on July 29, in Erie, Pa.Sue Ogrocki/The Associated Press
American democracy was headed for an existential crisis from the moment Donald Trump was elected president in 2016. Now, the moment of truth has arrived.
On Tuesday, the country he once led indicted him on four charges of trying to hold on to power by perverting the 2020 election outcome through intimidation and lies, an effort that culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, riots on Capitol Hill carried out by his supporters.
Given how far he went in 2021, and that he continues to lie about the results of the 2020 election that brought Joe Biden to power, there is no reason to believe Mr. Trump will let anything as minor as one more round of criminal indictments slow him down as he heads into an election year.
It’s going to be a nerve-wracking spectacle, with far-reaching consequences. The best-case scenario would be that Mr. Trump loses the Republican primary next July because enough party voters can’t bring themselves to select a candidate facing a total of 78 criminal indictments in three cases, with yet another set of charges likely.
But the odds of a clean and easy denouement are minimal. Mr. Trump is the runaway favourite to win the Republican nomination. One new poll has him leading his closest rival, Ron DeSantis, by 37 points. He commands the hearts and minds of a large segment of fiercely loyal right-wing voters: conspiracy-hungry voters who believe he is a victim of a “deep state” that can’t stand to see their man in power and is out to get him – and them, by extension.
And so the most likely scenario at this moment will be that Mr. Trump brazens out the onslaught of charges against him, uses them to raise millions in donations, wins the Republican nomination and goes into the 2024 election while also being on trial in at least two cases.
Trial dates in the federal case of the classified documents he is alleged to have hidden from government officials, and in the state case related to hush money he paid to a sex partner in New York, have been set for the first half of 2024. There is no trial date yet for the federal charges filed this week.
Mr. Trump is also expected to face charges stemming from his blatant efforts to meddle in the 2020 election outcome in the state of Georgia; the indictments could come as soon as this month.
But here’s the catch: There is nothing in U.S. law that prevents a person indicted on serious criminal charges – or even one who has been convicted – from running for president. Mr. Trump could even run from prison.
It would, in its way, be perfectly in keeping with Mr. Trump’s time at the top of American politics. He has been an agent of chaos from the start. He has assaulted every norm and convention, made racist and sexist slurs, childishly insulted his opponents, exasperated many of his country’s traditional allies, cozied up to Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, sought to prosecute enemies, meddled in investigations by the Department of Justice, and used his office to advance his family interests.
Now he is charged with attempting, with the help of unnamed co-conspirators, to usurp Americans’ constitutional right to vote, and to have their votes count, in an election that everyone with eyes to see knows he lost.
Trump indictment over 2020 election is shocking, but may come without political consequences
These are devastating charges that would force a normal candidate, with normal supporters, to drop out of elected politics. And yet he will almost certainly continue to run in the 2024 primary and election, throwing the country once more into chaos.
There is every likelihood that the locations of his trials will become scenes of polarized political protest in 2024.
And what, indeed, does happen if he is elected president while behind bars? If he’s convicted on federal charges, does he immediately pardon himself? No doubt he would try.
On top of all that, it’s well known, if re-elected, Mr. Trump and his allies aim to consolidate power in the president’s office to an unprecedented degree, making it harder for government to prosecute him in future, and easier for him to prosecute anyone he deems an enemy.
American democracy is as much on trial as Mr. Trump himself. When he wins, it loses. If that happens in 2024, the fallout for democracies around the world will be devastating. China and Russia are itching to be able to demonstrate to their cowed citizens that liberal democracies aren’t eternal. It would be a nightmare come to life.