Taiwan’s ruling party secures historic third term as tensions with China loomed over election

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Taiwan elected Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party to be the island’s next president Saturday, giving the ruling DPP a historic third term even as more than half of voters cast ballots for opposition parties.

Speaking to thousands of supporters at a rally outside DPP headquarters in Taipei, Mr. Lai said Taiwan had “shown the world how much we cherish our democracy.”

“We have told the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy,” he said.

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Facing a fierce challenge from both the KMT, the only other party to win the presidency, and the upstart Taiwan People’s Party, Mr. Lai outperformed polls to secure around 40 per cent of the vote, trailed by the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih at around 33 per cent and Ko Wen-je of the TPP with 26 per cent.

In interviews and at campaign stops, Mr. Lai framed the election as a choice between democracy and autocracy, arguing only the DPP, which rejects China’s claims to Taiwan and promotes the island’s separate identity, can protect its hard-won freedoms. The KMT, which favours eventual unification with China and is typically more conciliatory towards Beijing, warned the DPP was leading Taiwan towards war.

But in polls, voters consistently placed the economy ahead of China as their main concern, something that was evidenced by the rise of the centrist TPP, with Mr. Ko focusing more on livelihood issues than foreign policy.

While Taiwan’s economy has grown under the DPP, the benefits have not been equally felt, and young people in particular have struggled with inflation and the cost of housing. At final rallies this week, DPP officials sometimes struggled to make a positive case on this front, focusing far more on the threat from China than Mr. Lai’s wider platform.

Seeking to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the DPP, the KMT and TPP entered discussions late last year for an electoral alliance, but talks fell apart when neither side could agree which candidate should top the presidential ticket. With Mr. Lai consistently ahead in polls, a split opposition all but guaranteed his victory under Taiwan’s first-past-the-post system.

In parliamentary elections also taking place Saturday, the picture was less rosy for the DPP. Speaking after his victory, Mr. Lai acknowledged his party had failed to maintain its majority in the legislature, and said this showed “we did not work hard enough and there are areas where we must humbly review and look back on.”

James Chen, a professor at Tamkang University and foreign policy adviser to KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih, said Mr. Lai’s relatively small share of the popular vote and split parliament could make him “a weak president.”

Mr. Lai said he would work with all parties to find areas they agree on and may invite opposition politicians to join his cabinet.

At a press conference Friday, Mr. Ko said the TPP – which may hold the balance of power in parliament – “won’t pay too much attention to the distinction between parties” when it comes to deciding who to co-operate with. Despite Mr. Ko’s earlier outreach, his voters are typically more progressive and independence-leaning than the conservative KMT, which last ruled Taiwan between 2008 and 2016.

That was under President Ma Ying-jeou, who held historic talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and moved Taiwan’s economy far closer to China, sparking mass protests from those who feared the island was sleepwalking into annexation. Mr. Hou, the 2024 KMT candidate, had set out a far more moderate platform, vowing not to touch “the unification issue” if elected, but this was undermined by Mr. Ma in the campaign’s final days, after the former leader said Taiwan “could never win” a war with China over the island.

While it’s unclear how much those comments ultimately hurt the KMT, they were seized upon by the DPP to paint Mr. Hou as dangerous.

At a raucous rally outside DPP headquarters in Taipei, voter Ching Lin said she had supported Mr. Ma when he first ran for president, but switched to the DPP because “I personally believe that Taiwan people should have the right to choose our future, not China.”

Lev Nachman, a professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said Mr. Ma’s comments “certainly hurt the KMT vote” but noted the party also likely lost moderates to the TPP. He said Saturday’s results were a “huge victory for Ko” as well as Mr. Lai.

Tensions between China and Taiwan have ramped up under Mr. Xi, who in his New Year’s address said unification was “inevitable.” While Beijing prefers this be peaceful, it has refused to rule out military action to seize and annex the island, which has never been controlled by the Communist Party.

On Friday, China’s defence ministry said the People’s Liberation Army would “smash” any moves toward Taiwan independence. Self-ruled since 1949 and with a long history outside Chinese control, Mr. Lai has said Taiwan is “already a sovereign, independent country.”

Hours before Taiwanese voters headed to the polls Saturday, Taipei said it had tracked multiple Chinese aircraft and naval vessels around the island. Such incursions have become increasingly frequent in recent years, and many fear China could launch large scale military exercises in response to a DPP victory, as it has done at periods of high tension in the past.

“Lai will not enjoy the probation period from Beijing, since China sees him as a separatist,” said Prof. Chen.

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Liu Jianchao, a top Chinese diplomat, stressing the “importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” The U.S. is Taiwan’s most important ally, and President Joe Biden is expected to send a delegation to the island following Saturday’s election.

Mr. Lai promised as president he would maintain the cross-Strait status quo, and “confidently pursue exchanges and co-operation with China [to] achieve our objective of peace and stability.”

At the same time, he said Saturday, “we are also determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China.”