The latest:
- Britain has voted to leave the European Union after a bitter campaign
- The British pound collapsed as far as $1.35 (U.S.), its lowest level since 1985
- Carnage came to global financial markets on Friday
- Separate survey results from pollsters YouGov and Ipsos-MORI had put support for Remain at 52 to 48 per cent and 54-46 respectively
- MORE GLOBE COVERAGE: After Brexit: The future for Britain, the political fallout, and what about the EU?
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What to watch for tonight:
Early results are expected to start rolling in. Sunderland, a Labour Party stronghold located in the northeast of England, is expected to be among the first to declare results
The question:
On June 23 people in the United Kingdom will be asked to vote on a simple question:
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
What do the polls say?
For weeks, Remain held a slight lead, then Leave pulled ahead last week and now the race is about evenly split, based on a comprehensive poll of polls.
Why now?
To quell growing dissention within the Tory party and the rise in popularity of the Euro skeptic United Kingdom Independence Party, UKIP, Prime Minister David Cameron promised in 2013 to hold a referendum on the EU if his party won the election in 2015.
They did and he called the vote.
What's the background:
Britain has been a member of the EU, and its predecessor, since 1973. Two years later, however, Britain held a similar referendum, asking citizens if the country should stay in what was then called the European Economic Community. Sixty-seven per cent of Britons voted yes.
That evolved into the EU in 1993. British governments, particularly those led by Tories, have balked at what they see as the transformation of the EU into a political union and the country has opted out of several EU programs including the euro.
What is the EU?
The EU has 28 member states that sends members to the European parliament and abide by the European Court of Justice among other institutions. It has its own currency, the euro, used by 19 members; a parliament; central bank; court of justice; a flag.
Many members of the EU also belong to the euro zone and/or the Schengen Area.
The euro zone is a group of 19 EU states that use the euro and fall under the European Central Bank.
The Schengen Area is named after the town in Luxembourg, where the agreement was signed in 1985. It provides the passport-free movement of people.
Of the EU states, 26 belong to Schengen in one way or another. Three other non-EU countries, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, are associated members. Britain and Ireland do not belong.
What it means for Canada and the markets
If Britain leaves the EU, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, known as CETA, could be in trouble. That agreement has already been seven years in the works and has yet to be ratified by the EU or its member states. Brexit would probably distract the EU for years and put CETA on hold even longer.
The Bank of England has warned that the fallout from a British vote to leave the EU could harm the global economy. Bank of England governor Mark Carney has suggested that Britain could face a recession if it pulled out of the EU. And last week, something akin to panic set in across European financial markets, with investors piling into sovereign bonds, seeking a haven from the turmoil. In Canada, a Brexit could also further fan the flames in Canada's overheated housing market.
A Brexit would likely also cause big headaches for Canadian companies. Canadian firms choose to do business in Britain because it's a "beachhead" to launch into the EU but still shares a language and similar laws with Canada.
One thing is clear: The debate about Britain's potential departure also recalls when Quebeckers voted twice in referendums in which hard economics yielded to emotion and nearly broke up Canada, The Globe and Mail's Jeffrey Simpson writes.
- GLOBE EDITORIAL: Dear Britain: You’ve got a good deal with the EU. Don’t blow it now
Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
Who wants to remain in the EU?
Some notable supporters of `Remain`:
Why?
The Remain side believes that it would be an economic disaster for Britain to pull out.
Roughly 40 per cent of British trade is with the EU and the London financial district has become a world leader because of its unfettered access to the EU. Leaving would mean slower economic growth, job losses, higher prices and potentially a recession.
The Remain side says Britain should reform the EU from within and says Britain's influence globally would be reduced outside the EU.
Matthew Lloyd/Bloomberg
Matthew Lloyd/Bloomberg
Who wants to leave?
Seven senior cabinet ministers, including Boris Johnson, who is seen as a future prime minister, roughly half of the Conservative caucus, several large businesses, UKIP, the Sun newspaper.
Some notable supporters of `Leave`:
Why?
The Leave side says unrestricted immigration from the EU, particularly Eastern Europeans, has hurt the housing market and employment.
It says that leaving the EU would give Britain control over its borders and free the country from mountains of EU red tape. Cutting payments to the EU would also save the British government billions of dollars and allow for more spending on health care and other priorities.
Britain could negotiate its own trade deals with the EU and other countries, much like Canada does.
What do the experts say:
Economics tend to trump other issues in voters' minds, but the problem for Remain is that many voters, 45 per cent, do not believe that leaving the EU would make them personally worse off. That's a sign that the Remain side's message is not getting through. Leave's problem is that voting patterns in other referendums, including in Canada, show that there is a late surge in support for the status quo. That happened in the Scottish referendum in 2014. Despite polls showing majority support for independence, 55 per cent of voters opted to stay in the United Kingdom.
What's the reaction globally?
Financial markets in Europe have swung wildly lately as support for Leave has increased. Investors have also been snapping up 10-year German and British bonds, or gilts, a sure sign that many are looking for a safe harbour. Yields on German bonds went negative for the first time recently and British gilts touched record lows. The pound has also been on a roller coaster and some say its value could fall by as much as 20 per cent if Brits vote to leave.
How does it breakdown within the UK?
The map of Britain's Leave vote based on our new model, rolling data from past two weeks, https://t.co/3IpjvVd88w pic.twitter.com/wrfWpb0PDz
— YouGov (@YouGov) June 21, 2016
But, what's really going on:
Polling shows a deep divide in the country along socio-economic lines. As one polling expert put it, this is a struggle between the winners of globalization and those who feel left behind. There is also a growing backlash against elites. And there is trouble for Mr. Cameron, as cabinet ministers trade insults and a growing number of MPs call for him to resign regardless of the result.
Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
If the UK decides to leave, what happens next?
- With files from Bloomberg and Reuters
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story stated that Britain joined the EU through a referendum vote in 1975. Britain actually joined the European Economic Community in 1973. The referendum held in 1975 was to see if Britain should stay a part of EEC.
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