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Canada is handing out tens of billions of dollars in subsidies to muscle into the electric vehicle battery business. But will its late arrival hinder its bid for ‘superpower’ status? The Globe examines the supply chain end-to-end to reveal the obstacles — and the opportunities

Mission Critical

Batteries required

Canada anted up tens of billions of dollars in subsidies to muscle into the electric vehicle battery business. But will its late arrival hinder its bid for ‘superpower’ status? The Globe surveys the supply chain end-to-end for clues

by Matthew McClearn Graphics by Murat Yükselir and Jeremy Agius

This story is part of Mission Critical , a Globe series that looks at the issues around whether Canada can become a mining superpower in critical minerals used in the clean energy transition. Read the most recent story published from the series here.

In the global scramble to profit from the electric vehicles that are expected to flood roads and highways the world over, few trophies are as vigorously contested as gigafactories – the term for giant battery manufacturing plants. To lure them to Canada, Ottawa and the provinces have offered huge subsidies to the likes of Stellantis NV and Volkswagen.

The rationale for such generous incentives, potentially worth tens of billions of dollars, is that demand for EVs is growing so rapidly that, by 2030, they might account for half of new passenger cars sold worldwide. Ontario’s automaking industry must pivot quickly to churning them out. Any company that can provide crucial inputs – everything from raw minerals to finished battery packs – stands to reap a fortune and create coveted, high-paying jobs. The federal government adopted the phrase “from mines to mobility” to express its sweeping ambitions.

With fresh investments announced regularly, it might seem that Canada has already carved out a pre-eminent position in the EV revolution. Some observers believe it already has. In a recent assessment of countries’ readiness to provide key inputs such as renewable energy, raw materials and battery cells, EY, a consultancy, ranked Canada fifth, ahead of traditional automaking nations like Germany and Japan.

In a commentary published earlier this month, lawyers at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP declared that, thanks to Canada’s “numerous competitive advantages,” the country is already poised “to emerge ahead of the pack as a powerhouse.”

Given predictions that the battery market will continue to grow exponentially, this is heady stuff. In a report published this week, RMI, a U.S.-based clean-energy think tank, said battery sales have been doubling every two to three years, and the global market for them will soon exceed that for solar panels and wind turbines. RMI estimates that as many as 400 gigafactories could be built worldwide by 2030, which it called “the biggest capacity ramp-up since World War 2.”

Yet talk of Canadian companies seizing “first-mover advantage” – a phrase often invoked by government and corporate officials seeking to convey why additional investment is urgently needed – overlooks the fact that China’s government and industry (and, to lesser extents, competitors in South Korea and Japan) did that more than a decade ago. Ford Motor Co., which builds cars in this country, reported earlier this year that it had mapped four of its battery supply chains back to the mine sites. China featured prominently, as did Australia, South Korea and Poland.

That Canada went unmentioned betrays its late arrival. It also highlights how long the road to powerhouse status might be.

Mining

One implication of shifting from vehicles with fossil-fuel powertrains to EVs is that the latter need six times as many mineral inputs. Lithium-ion batteries, the dominant EV technology, require lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and manganese – and rising demand for them has added volatility to commodity prices in recent years.

The federal government’s standard line, contained in its critical-minerals strategy, is that Canada is “extremely well positioned” to supply these materials. It is one of a small handful of democratic countries that has reserves of most of them. And, after all, mining has long been one of Canada’s strengths.

Yet, so far, Canada is a tiny player in all but one of the battery metals. That could change; early-stage exploration projects abound. But many mining companies guiding them are small juniors whose cash balances seem unequal to their lofty ambitions. A 2022 report by the Trillium Network for Advanced Manufacturing, a non-profit that promotes manufacturing in Ontario, noted that the success of their projects will depend heavily on market conditions and commodity price fluctuations.

Given the many years it takes to develop a mine and acquire the necessary permits, near-term prospects for greatly accelerating Canada’s output of battery metals are slim. The federal government has earmarked $1.5-billion to fund development of critical-minerals projects, such as preconstruction studies, and planning and consultations with Indigenous peoples.

Mineral production and estimated reserves

Lithium

Most EVs are powered by lithium-ion batteries. Canada’s lithium production has been tiny for many years. But new entrants are arriving. In 2023, Brisbane-based Sayona Mining Ltd. and North Carolina-based Piedmont Lithium Inc. restarted production at a lithium mine in Quebec. Global lithium leaders include Argentina, Chile and Australia.

Nickel (Strength)

Leading battery chemistries contain significant concentrations of nickel, which is used in a battery’s cathode (the positive terminal) to increase the amount of energy stored, thus extending an EV’s range. Canada is one of the three largest producers of battery-grade nickel (the others are Russia and Australia). But Canada’s major nickel producers were sold to foreign interests decades ago – and much of their current output goes to the steel industry.

Cobalt

Primarily used in cathodes, cobalt is the most expensive metal in batteries by weight. Canada produced slightly more than 3,900 tonnes in 2022, nearly all of that as a secondary product of nickel mining. Canada accounts for less than 3 per cent of global reserves. The Democratic Republic of Congo produces more than 70 per cent of the world’s cobalt.

Graphite

A crucial ingredient in the anode of a battery (the negative terminal). According to Natural Resources Canada, in 2021 all of Canada’s graphite production came from the Lac des Iles mine in Quebec. Canada’s reserves account for less than 2 per cent of the global total. China meets 80 per cent of global demand.

Manganese

Primarily used in battery anodes. Leading producers include South Africa, Australia and China. Canada produces almost none and has relied largely on imports. Of the battery materials, manganese is the only one the federal government didn’t list among the six minerals it believes the country should focus on.

Recent developments

In 2022, Vale Canada began an expansion of its Copper Cliff mine in Sudbury, aiming to significantly increase nickel production. Vale said much of the additional output is intended for use in EVs produced in Canada.

Canada Nickel Co.’s Crawford Mine, in Timmins, Ont., is at an early stage of the permitting process. The decision on whether to construct it is scheduled for 2025. The company says the mine would produce 38,000 tonnes annually.

Philadelphia-based Livent Corp., half-owned by the Quebec government, says its Nemaska property in the province will begin producing lithium in 2024.

Materials processing and cell component manufacturing

It’s not enough to tear ore from the ground and separate out the valuable materials. Battery components such as the cathode and the anode require highly pure ingredients – and that means lots of processing and refining.

This is highly specialized work. According to the International Energy Agency, Japan’s Sumitomo Group and several Chinese companies are among the dominant players in cathode materials. A single Chinese company, Jiangxi Tinci Central Advanced Materials Co. Ltd., produces more than one-third of the world’s electrolyte salt. Chinese companies also dominate the ingredients for anodes.

BATTERY CELL

Electrode

sheets

Positive

terminal

Negative

terminal

Metal

casing

ELECTRODE SHEETS

When a lithium-ion battery is getting discharged, the lithium ions move from the cathode to the anode. The exact opposite happens when the battery is getting charged.

Current direction

(discharging)

Anode

Graphite and

manganese

Lithium ions

Aluminium

Copper

Porous

separator

Cathode

Cobalt, nickel

and manganese

Liquid

electrolyte

Charging

BATTERY CELL

Electrode

sheets

Positive

terminal

Negative

terminal

Metal

casing

ELECTRODE SHEETS

When a lithium-ion battery is getting discharged, the lithium ions move from the cathode to the anode. The exact opposite happens when the battery is getting charged.

Current direction

(discharging)

Anode

Graphite and

manganese

Lithium ions

Aluminium

Copper

Porous

separator

Cathode

Cobalt, nickel

and manganese

Liquid electrolyte

Charging

When a lithium-ion battery is getting discharged, the lithium ions

move from the cathode to the anode. The exact opposite happens

when the battery is getting charged.

BATTERY CELL

ELECTRODE SHEET

Current direction

(discharging)

Anode

Graphite and

manganese

Electrode

sheets

Positive

terminal

Negative

terminal

Lithium ions

Aluminium

Copper

Metal casing

Porous

separator

Cathode

Cobalt, nickel

and manganese

Charging

Liquid electrolyte

When a lithium-ion battery is getting discharged, the lithium ions

move from the cathode to the anode. The exact opposite happens

when the battery is getting charged.

BATTERY CELL

ELECTRODE SHEET

Current direction

(discharging)

Anode

Graphite and

manganese

Electrode

sheets

Positive

terminal

Negative

terminal

Lithium ions

Aluminium

Copper

Metal casing

Porous

separator

Cathode

Cobalt, nickel

and manganese

Liquid electrolyte

Charging

When a lithium-ion battery is getting discharged, the lithium ions

move from the cathode to the anode. The exact opposite happens

when the battery is getting charged.

BATTERY CELL

ELECTRODE SHEET

Current direction

(discharging)

Anode

Graphite and

manganese

Electrode

sheets

Positive

terminal

Negative

terminal

Lithium ions

Aluminium

Copper

Metal casing

Porous

separator

Cathode

Cobalt, nickel

and manganese

Liquid electrolyte

Charging

One of the most crucial materials is known as cathode active material, or CAM. This material, typically a powder, contains many of the battery metals mentioned above. In effect, it’s glued or laminated onto the battery’s cathode and stores energy. According to the IEA, 70 per cent of production capacity for cathodes is in China, with South Korea and Japan playing smaller roles.

North American CAM production is negligible. As long as that remains the case, Canada faces the risk that any battery metals it eventually extracts will be exported overseas for processing.

The Trillium Network urged that more refining and processing capacity be constructed near Canada’s mines. Brendan Sweeney, the network’s managing director, acknowledges that although such facilities employ hundreds rather than thousands of people, “they’re metal refining and chemical plants. They’re very capital-intensive, and very productive.”

But they’re also very difficult to establish. Burnaby, B.C.-based Nano One Materials Corp. has been working at that since 2011. It has patented a process for producing CAM, and established partnerships with an unnamed global automaker as well as metals and materials giants such as Sumitomo, Rio Tinto Group and BASF SE.

But Nano One hasn’t yet begun commercial production and continues to lose money. Its chief executive officer, Dan Blondal, said it costs three to four times more to build a CAM plant here than it does in China. To succeed in North America, producers must develop new battery chemistries and manufacturing processes that reduce complexity, energy use, waste and carbon emissions.

That’s what Nano One is attempting in Candiac, Que. Last year the company bought Johnson Matthey Battery Materials Ltd., a company that owned one of North America’s few CAM production facilities, for $16.3-million. There, Nano One is pilot-testing its process to produce CAM for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes – a chemistry that occupies a relatively small but rapidly growing segment of the EV battery market, in part because it doesn’t require nickel and cobalt.

“We feel that the cost structure we can set up here in Quebec can be competitive,” Mr. Blondal said.

Recent developments

In 2022, Umicore SA unveiled plans to build a factory for CAM and precursor materials in Loyalist, Ont. Production to begin in 2026.

Euro Manganese Inc. plans to build a plant in Becancour, Que., that would produce 48,500 tonnes of battery-grade manganese sulphate per year.

In 2022, General Motors Co. and Posco Chemical Co. Ltd. announced a new facility in Becancour to produce CAM for GM’s EV batteries. All of its output will be exported to the United States.

In 2023, Ford, South Korea’s EcoProBM and SK On Co. Ltd. announced plans to build a cathode manufacturing plant in Becancour, expected to open in 2026. It would make battery components for Ford vehicles.

BASF, the German chemical giant, announced it would build a CAM and battery metals recycling plant in Becancour. Production is expected to begin in 2025.

Cell production and
battery assembly

The various components must be assembled into battery cells.

McKinsey & Co., the global management consulting company, says that cell manufacturing is the most important segment in the supply chain, and will account for as much as 40 per cent of all value created in the battery supply chain by the end of this decade.

There are at least half a dozen manufacturers worldwide that have a decade’s worth of experience making cells, according to McKinsey, and they’re mostly based in Asia. Canada is now seeking to join a new wave of battery makers that are setting up shop in North America and Europe. There’s room for 10 to 15, McKinsey has suggested, but many more than that are already jockeying for position. The inevitable result, McKinsey predicts, will be consolidation, so new entrants must be cost-competitive “from day one.”

That’s a tall order. In a report published this month by Accelerate (a coalition of Canadian manufacturers, parts suppliers, mining companies and others seeking to promote the establishment of EV battery supply chains), Marissa West, president and managing director of GM Canada, said building a battery plant here costs between three and four times as much as doing so in Asia – a reality that, in her view, highlights the need for government support.

An EV battery pack is a lot more than a single cell. It’s a system consisting of multiple cells, electronics, a cooling system, a battery management system and other components. Assembly is typically done in close proximity to cell production facilities.

BATTERY

CELL

Battery cells are combined into modules

BATTERY

MODULE

Modules are placed

along with other

electronics such as

battery management,

cooling and various

other components

BATTERY

PACK

BATTERY

CELL

Battery cells are combined into modules

BATTERY

MODULE

Modules are placed

along with other

electronics such as

battery management,

cooling and various

other components

BATTERY

PACK

BATTERY

PACK

BATTERY

CELL

BATTERY

MODULE

Battery cells are combined into modules

Modules are placed along with other electronics such as battery management, cooling and various other components

BATTERY PACK

BATTERY CELL

BATTERY MODULE

Battery cells are combined into modules

Modules are placed along with other electronics such as battery management, cooling, and various other components

BATTERY PACK

BATTERY CELL

BATTERY MODULE

Battery cells are combined into modules

Modules are placed along with other electronics such as battery management, cooling, and various other components

By various estimates, the world will need at least 90 gigafactories to meet the growing demand for EVs by 2030 – perhaps as many as 400. A few years ago, a report published by the federal government declared that attracting a leading global battery manufacturer was a priority because it “would anchor Canada’s battery industry, supporting the growth of both upstream materials production and downstream development of electrified vehicle assembly and stationary storage technologies.”

Canada has now attracted three, at considerable expense.

The steady stream of announcements of new gigafactories throughout North America might seem impressive. But if the rapid pace of construction in China continues, that country will maintain its impressive lead over North American rivals.

According to a federal report, Canada imports 95 per cent of the batteries needed to meet its energy storage requirements. One consequence of the country’s late arrival is that it will be a struggle to establish a homegrown battery manufacturer.

“Most major North American EV battery plants are joint ventures with established multinationals, meaning companies from other countries are retaining the manufacturing know-how and intellectual property,” observed a report published jointly by Trillium and Clean Energy Canada last year.

Those multinationals include South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd. (which works with GM) and Japan’s Panasonic Holdings Corp. (which works with Tesla Inc.). First-mover advantage has allowed them to establish dominance.

Recent developments

In 2021, StromVolt Americas Inc., a Canadian startup, announced a 400,000-square-foot cell manufacturing facility in Quebec.

In 2023, Volkswagen announced that its battery unit, PowerCoSE, planned to build a gigafactory in St. Thomas, Ont., that would produce cells, with a capacity of up to 90 GWh. It would be Volkswagen’s first battery plant outside Europe. Production is scheduled to begin in 2027.

In 2022, Stellantis and LG Energy Solution Ltd. announced plans to establish Canada’s first large EV battery manufacturing plant in Windsor, Ont., to open in early 2024. It would produce 45 GWh.

GM has announced it will begin assembling battery modules at its CAMI plant in Ingersoll, Ont., in the second quarter of 2024. CAMI will take individual battery cells and assemble them into full packs.

Sweden’s Northvolt AB plans to establish a 30-GWh cell manufacturing plant near Montreal, to commence operations in 2026, with further expansion planned.

Electric-vehicle manufacturing

The final step is to install the battery in a finished product: a gleaming new Ford Mustang Mach-E, Tesla Model 3 or another such vehicle.

The good news is that Canada already has 10 automotive assembly plants. But their output consists almost entirely of vehicles powered by fossil fuels. (Some have turned out hybrids: Toyota, for example, has made hybrid versions of its Lexus RX and RAV4 vehicles in Ontario for several years.) At least for the moment, Canada’s output of EVs is minuscule.

Clean Energy Canada and the Trillium Network assert that all of Canada’s assembly plants should transition to exclusively manufacturing EVs by the 2030s, for a combined annual output of nearly two million units. The two organizations add that the economic benefits of assembling EVs are the largest of any stage in the battery supply chain.

“Making vehicles is a great way to anchor your electric-vehicle industry,” Mr. Sweeney said.

Moreover, the federal government assumes that battery supply chains will be established near EV assembly plants.

According to Clean Energy Canada, “We already have the assembly plants, work force and R&D capacity ready to go.”

But those plants belong to foreign automakers. Greig Mordue, an engineering professor at McMaster University, says the primary weakness of the federal government’s industrial policy is that Canada lacks a homegrown automaker. This significantly limits the benefits Canada can reap.

“We paid an enormous price to get three battery plants – $37-billion,” he said. “And we got none of the sort of the ancillary benefits that go to the homegrown automakers.”

Recent developments

In 2022, Stellantis committed to invest $3.6-billion to retool its Windsor and Brampton, Ont., assembly plants to build EVs and hybrids.

In late 2022, GM began producing BrightDrop EV delivery vans at its CAMI plant in Ingersoll. GM called it Canada’s first full-scale EV plant.

In 2023, Ford said it would spend $1.8-billion to retool its Oakville, Ont., plant for EV production, and that it would become the first automaker in Canada to build passenger EVs. Expected start: 2025.

Honda Motor Co. Ltd. has said it will retool its plant in Alliston, Ont., to build EVs exclusively by 2040.

Recycling

Widespread EV adoption would be followed by a wave of tired and spent batteries that could lead to a waste-management headache. Nickel can contaminate soil. Manganese is toxic in high concentrations and has been found to impair brain development in children.

Alternatively, those batteries could be carefully disassembled, and their valuable materials recycled. And though an EV battery may have degraded to the point of inducing severe range anxiety for its owner, it might remain suitable for continued use in a new stationary storage unit attached to, say, a wind farm.

But little of the necessary groundwork for EV battery recycling has been done yet. Mark Winfield, a professor at York University who focuses on electricity and energy efficiency, recently published a paper which compared preparedness in Europe (where dead batteries have been managed under a European Union directive since 2006) with that of Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec. It found that regulatory frameworks essentially don’t exist in this country.

“There has been little action or discussion so far regarding what will happen when EV batteries reach their end-of-life,” Prof. Winfield and his colleagues concluded.

Recent developments

Toronto-based Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. planned to recycle end-of-life batteries into “black mass” that would be reprocessed at a new facility known as the Rochester Hub in Rochester, N.Y., which the company billed as North America’s first source of recycled battery-grade lithium. But in October, Li-Cycle’s board of directors halted construction, citing rising costs and dwindling cash balances.

Lithion Technologies recently completed construction of a plant in St-Bruno-de-Mortarville, Que., near Montreal, to process more than 15,000 tons of lithium-ion batteries a year.

recycling bin illustration recycling bin lid illustration

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