June Nymex natural gas (NGM24) on Monday closed up by +0.107 (+5.56%).

June nat-gas prices Monday rallied sharply.  The outlook for warmer temperatures that could boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning usage pushed prices higher Monday.  The Commodity Weather Group on Monday said forecasts have shifted to above-normal temperatures for much of the eastern half and the central part of the US from May 4-8.

May nat gas prices last Friday tumbled to a 3-3/4 year nearest-futures low (NGK24) due to ample US nat-gas supplies and mild spring temperatures.   Nat-gas prices have collapsed this year after an unusually mild winter curbed heating consumption for nat-gas and pushed inventories well above average.

Nat-gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG nat-gas export terminal in Texas on March 1 shut down one of its three production units due to damage from extreme cold in Texas.  The unit recently reopened on a partial basis.  However, Freeport said that once the production unit is fully reopened, the other two units will be taken down for maintenance, and all three units will not return online until May.  The lack of full capacity of the Freeport export terminal limits US nat-gas exports and boosts US nat-gas inventories.  

Lower-48 state dry gas production Monday was 97.9 bcf/day (-3.3% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 63.9 bcf/day (+1.4% y/y), according to BNEF.  LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Monday were 12.9 bcf/day (+1.3% w/w), according to BNEF.

An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers.  The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US electricity output in the week ended April 20 rose +2.48% y/y to 71,072 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative US electricity output in the 52-week period ending April 20 fell -0.27% y/y to 4,096,373 GWh.

Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended April 19 rose by +92 bcf, more than expectations of +86 bcf and above the 5-year average build for this time of year of +86 bcf.  As of April 19, nat-gas inventories were up +20.7% y/y and were +37.0% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies.  In Europe, gas storage was 62% full as of April 22, above the 5-year seasonal average of 45% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending April 26 fell by -1 rig to a 2-1/4 year low of 105 rigs.  Active rigs have fallen since climbing to a 4-1/2 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
 

• Nat-Gas Prices Weighed Down by Ample US Supplies and Mild Temperatures
• Nat-Gas Prices Fall as EIA Inventories Climb More Than Expected
• Nat-Gas Prices Slump on Mild US Temps and Elevated Inventories
• Nat-Gas Prices Underpinned by Forecasts for Warm Temps