E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5333.00, up 63.50

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,691.75, up 276.75

We have fresh record highs in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures. So, where to next? Let’s not put the cart in front of the horse; we MUST first break out decisively and close out above the previous record highs from April 1st and March 21st, respectively, on a weekly basis. If this move struggles to follow through, we will look to a number of support levels leading into major three-star support defined by yesterday’s data spike and opening hour trade at 5303.25-5308.25 in the E-mini S&P and 18,532-18,547 in the E-mini NQ.

Powering yesterday’s move was momentum; E-mini S&P futures secured the ninth positive session out of ten, with the only miss being a 1.00-point loss on May 13th. Next, earnings broadly have been solid, with leadership outperforming expectations. Lastly, the heartbeat of this record run comes from slowing economic data, and specifically, after three hotter-than-expected CPI reports, yesterday’s slower read encouraged a risk-on move and an unwind of negative positions (short covering). It is not only CPI thought, the job market is loosening up, the Services sector is beginning to show holes, yesterday’s NY Empire State Manufacturing contracted larger than expected, and Retail Sales slowed. This has all contained a rally in 10-year yields, sending it to the lowest level since early April and helping to stoke the risk-appetite. Today, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 66.7% probability the Fed will cut twice this year.

This morning, we look to Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, and Housing Starts, all due at 7:30 a.m. CT. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 a.m. CT, and traders must also keep an eye out for Fed speak.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 5343.25**, 5400-5420.25***, 5459.75-5474.25***

Pivot: 5333-5333.50

Support: 5321-5325.25**, 5315.25-5316.75**, 5303.25-5308.50***, 5286.75-5292.75***, 5269.50-5274.25****

NQ (June)

Resistance: 18,687-18,709****, 18,825***, 19,085***, 19,319***

Pivot: 18,645

Support: 18,602-18,613**, 18,532-18,547***, 18,446-18,485***, 18,415**, 18,336-18,371****

Crude Oil (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled 78.16, up 0.51

June WTI Crude Oil futures sank to the lowest level since March 12th but quickly reversed course on larger draws than expected on the weekly EIA inventory report (-2.508 mb Crude versus -0.40 expected) and a broad risk-on move powered by economic data. Yesterday’s low of 76.70 did not decisively break below major three-star support aligning multiple levels with the previous low, a pocket aligning with that mid-to-late March consolidation, and this kept a bullish technical case intact. Similar to last week’s bullish outside reversal, we must see follow through and in order to neutralize the negative trend, June WTI Crude Oil futures must close back above 80.62-80.70.

Note, June options expire at 1:30 pm CT today.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 78.87-78.90**, 79.43-79.49***, 80.62-80.70***

Pivot: 77.68-77.96

Support: 78.05-78.22***, 77.69*, 77.28-77.45**, 76.70-76.98***, 75.90-76.07***, 75.04-75.10**

Gold (June) / Silver (July)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2394.9, up 35.0

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 29.729, up 1.027

Gold futures secured the highest settlement since April 19th, while Silver took out its April high settlement and traded to the highest level since February 2021. Despite the underlying strength and a terrific week, one could view the lack of overnight follow-through as disappointing, and question whether this is another magnificent failure for Silver at the $30 mark. It certainly sets the stage through the end of the week, and the precious metals complex must maintain this momentum or could face another wave of vicious profit-taking.

In order to maintain yesterday’s momentum, we must see price action in Gold hold above first key support at 2380.3 and Silver above 29.72-29.80.

Despite some of the near-term swings, we view the strength across both precious and industrial metals as sustainable over the longer-run. There is a push for increased electric power use because the green energy revolution, rising E.V. Vehicle demand, and advancements in A.I. have all strained the out-of-date electrical grid. The combination pushes demand for copper, silver, and other metallic metals higher for the first time in a decade. That comes at a time when increased regulation makes it harder to bring on additional supply.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 2399.4-2404.3**, 2410.1-2413.8***

Pivot: 2385.3-2387.7

Support: 2380.3**, 2375*, 2369.7**, 2357.1-2359.9***, 2350.5-2351.6**, 2336.6-2342****, 2329-2330.7**, 2316.4-2318***

Silver (July)

Resistance: 30.00-30.19****

Support: 29.72-29.80**, 29.58-29.63**, 29.37-29.44***, 29.12-29.26***, 28.93**, 28.76***

Micro Bitcoin (May)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 66,495, up 4,660

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646***

Pivot: 65.700

Support: 64,540-64,975**, 63,440-63,900**, 62,995***

Enjoy the benefits of Blue Line Futures

Open an account with Blue Line Futures and you will gain access to our daily commodity commentary, free desktop/mobile trading platforms, 24-hour trade desk, and more!

https://bluelinefutures.com/2023-signup/?utm_source=Bill-Baruch-Barchart 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.