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10-Year T-Note(ZNU22)
CBOT

Today's Change
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Premarket review for the S&P

TradeGuidance - Tue Oct 4, 2022

The overnight participation looks interesting for sure with net shorts piling in above 3755 while longs persisted from the lower 3700’s. Overall, overnight appears net long and have pushed futures pricing above the intraday resistance points but not yet into fib resistance which will be a formidable force for the market to reckon with if we continue to squeeze shorts today into the core of the session. Low-volume nodes are at 3734.50 3724.75 3716.25 3704.25 so if we are to liquidate, those are immediate prices points at which we could see come capitulation among market makers and potential points of reversal or accumulation. We could push lower in an attempt to close the gap early in the session today which is significant owing to the early shock-and-awe effect. Fading this rally appears to be the best option at this point as it was driven by participation fueled by short covering.

Ideas for trade positioning for the intraday market participant 

  • The long trade seemingly active in the ON session into the session open, holds more credibility at 3715 with a stop at 3702.25 while looking for 3779.25 and a squeeze continuation trade.
  • The short trade is a fade the rally trade and is currently active from R2 and overnight participants failure to push us into R3. Use the ONH as a stop for this trade and minimally look for S1 or 3670.25 for a intraday or swing profit target. 
  • In the economic calendar, continuation Fed speech today with Williams Mester and Jefferson all speaking at some point before noon and the message is not going to be any different which is that the Fed is committed to taming runaway inflation. Job opening numbers at 10 alongside m/m factory orders are more important events for today as receding economic conditions should see a shrinkage in new job openings. 

Key Levels (ESZ22) 

Support & Resistance for the intraday (ESZ22)(YMZ22)(NQZ22)(RXZ22) 

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