The “September Swoon” appears to have arrived early this year with major North American stock markets under pressure in August.
Month-to-date, stock market returns are negative both in Canada and in the U.S. The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P/TSX SmallCap Index have declined 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. South of the border, the S&P 500 has fallen 3.3 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.7 per cent and the Nasdaq has tumbled 5 per cent. Rapidly expanded stock valuations, elevated inflation combined with rising concerns over China’s economic slowdown are all contributing to the slide in equity markets.
On Tuesday, Canada’s inflation rate came in hotter-than-expected, rising 3.3 per cent in July, above the Street’s forecast of 3 per cent and up from 2.8 per cent reported in June. CPI-trim and CPI-median were both in line with expectations at 3.6 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
With inflation remaining well above the Bank of Canada’ 2-per-cent target, markets are now pricing in a 29 per cent probability that the Bank of Canada will raise rates on September 6, according to Refinitiv, and a 53 per cent probability of a rate hike on October 25.
Now, here’s a look at analysts’ current outlooks for Canadian stocks.
This report includes a link to a list of analysts’ target prices, recommendations, forecast returns, and yields for all securities in the S&P/TSX Composite Index grouped by sector and ranked according to their expected price returns (excluding dividend and distribution income). The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts. A target price typically reflects an expected share or unit price 12 months from now based on an analyst’s financial modelling, such as a discounted cash flow or sum-of-the-parts model. For the yield provided, Bloomberg calculates this figure by annualizing the most recent announced dividend or distribution value.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return. In addition, an outlier (extreme target price) can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low. Don’t let a huge projected gain lure you into a position – it is critical to look at the company and industry fundamentals.