Hong Kong officials in last ditch effort to juice turnout ahead of ‘patriots only’ local elections

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What if Hong Kong held an election and no one came?

That’s the question officials in the Chinese territory are facing this week, ahead of voting for district councils on Sunday under a new “patriots only” system, which severely reduced the number of directly elected seats and placed the local bodies under tighter government control.

At the past district council elections in November, 2019, amid the largest anti-government unrest Hong Kong had seen since its 1997 handover to Chinese rule, more than 70 per cent of voters cast a ballot, an unprecedented turnout, and one that resulted in a landslide for pro-democracy candidates.

Those elections were seen as a de facto referendum on public support for the increasingly violent protests. The results greatly alarmed Beijing, which had been assured by Hong Kong officials a supposed silent majority of voters opposed the pro-democracy movement.

In 2020, after the protests had died down as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing imposed a draconian national security law on Hong Kong. This was followed by new electoral reforms designed to restrict all seats to “patriots,” as defined by the government, reversing decades of slow progress toward greater democracy in the former British colony.

Speaking in April, Hong Kong leader John Lee said the new rules were necessary “to prevent a repeat of what happened” in 2019.

“We must not allow the black sheep of the family to destroy our system,” he added.

Voters Sunday will be choosing around 20 per cent of seats, a lower number than when the district councils were established during the colonial era. The remainder will be selected by the chief executive and various government nominating committees, while the councils themselves will be headed by an unelected government official.

Even the directly elected seats are not an open competition: all candidates must first be vetted by three local bodies. Many members of these bodies are running for the same offices they are responsible for nominating people to.

According to analysis by the Hong Kong Free Press, more than 75 per cent of candidates in Sunday’s direct elections also sit on the nominating committees. No pro-democracy parties have been able to field a candidate, while even centrist and smaller pro-Beijing parties have struggled to get the required approval.

Not that there are many pro-democracy figures left to run. Almost every prominent activist who has not fled the city is in prison or facing prosecution, many in a case stemming from a primary poll held in 2020 to try and concentrate anti-government votes and win control of the semi-elected legislature.

Prosecutors argued that the scheme amounted to subversion and charged 47 participants with a variety of national security offences. Arguments in the “Hong Kong 47″ trial wrapped up this month, with a verdict expected early next year.

Over the weekend, one of the few prominent activists at large, student leader Agnes Chow, revealed she has gone into exile in Canada, after receiving approval from the Hong Kong authorities to join a university program in Toronto this summer and subsequently jumping bail.

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Writing last month, Lau Siu-kai, an adviser to Beijing on Hong Kong issues, said critics of the new electoral system “are either motivated by an anti-China or anti-Hong Kong mentality or have ulterior motives,” or they lack a correct understanding of the role and powers of the district councils in Hong Kong’s political development and governance structure.

He said the bar for being a “patriot” was high and members of the nominating committees “have taken their duties seriously and responsibly.”

“They are only willing to nominate those whose credentials as patriots are indisputable,” Mr. Lau said, adding that it was wise to avoid pro-democracy or centrist candidates as committee members could not know whether or not, after being elected, these people would “do anything that violates the requirements of patriots.”

But while Hong Kong officials may be assured that there are no crypto-separatists hiding in the candidate pool Sunday, a sense the authorities have their thumb on the scale, and the homogeneity of those standing, has resulted in a distinct lack of enthusiasm from voters.

One survey found that around 50 per cent of young people registered to vote did not intend to cast a ballot. Privately, officials are expressing concern turnout could be even lower than the 30 per cent who took part in the first legislative elections under the new “patriotic” system in 2021.

As the elections have neared, the government has pulled out all stops to juice engagement, spending upwards of $17.2-million on a promotional campaign. This includes traditional publicity campaigns and door knocking, but also putting on concerts and drone shows, and making admission to museums free over the weekend to ensure that as many Hong Kongers as possible stay in the city rather than travel to the nearby mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen, as is a growing trend.

For those coming the opposite direction, Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific is offering discounted flights for registered voters living in mainland China to come cast their ballots. The government is also subsidizing elderly care homes to bus their residents to the polls.

It’s unclear how much such efforts will pay off: A similar scheme to make public transport free around the 2021 legislative elections saw thousands of Hong Kongers take to the city’s country parks and attractions, but few line up to vote.