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Canada’s federal and provincial governments have been slow to release to the public the internal modelling that has underpinned their decisions in the fight against COVID-19, such as ordering businesses to close and citizens to remain two metres apart at all times. Now that’s starting to change.

Health officials in Ontario today released projections of the number of cases and deaths they expected in the province under different scenarios. They said the province iss currently forecasting that between 3,000 and 15,000 people would die in the province due to the novel coronavirus in the next two years. Their modelling suggested that if current physical-distancing practices were not in place, more than 100,000 people would die.

B.C. released their models last week. Quebec Premier François Legault said at a news conference today that his government would release their province’s modelling on Tuesday.

The Ontario government is ordered the closing of more businesses, including some aspects of the construction industry and cannabis stores.

Have you had to self-quarantine because of the coronavirus? We want to hear your story. Email: tips@globeandmail.com

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Medical manufacturer 3M said it was being forced by the U.S. White House to stop sending protective masks to Canada and Latin America. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canadian officials have been in touch with their U.S. counterparts to stress the need to keep goods moving across the border, no matter what the goods are. 3M said in a statement that trade retaliation could mean that, ultimately, the number of masks available in the U.S. would decrease.

The FBI has seized a shipment of medical supplies from Canada that was bound for an American accused of profiteering by, for example, reselling one package of masks to a clinic with a 700-per-cent markup. The FBI is instead redirecting the equipment to other health-care workers in need in New York and New Jersey.

Nearly 3,000 people have died in New York state due to the coronavirus, Governor Andrew Cuomo said Friday – about as many as died during the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. New York City is currently the hardest-hit place in the country.

Care homes across Canada are so desperate for staff that workers at shuttered libraries and museums are being asked to help look after elderly patients.

Italy is marking the deaths of the White Coats, the doctors who are tragically dying as they fight the virus.

CIBC is the first bank to cut the interest rate on personal credit cards for some customers who have been financially devastated by the pandemic.

And Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly is sharing some perspective on life while in self-isolation with his girlfriend, Olympic gold medallist Tessa Virtue. “We are trying to keep each other sane. I don’t want to say too much about it, but … I’m glad in a time like this that I’m not alone. We all need somebody to talk to.”

MARKET WATCH

Global stock markets sank on Friday following more signs that the COVID-19 pandemic would take a massive toll on economic growth, while oil prices continued to rally on hopes of a cut to global supply.

Canada’s main stock index gave up early gains to finish lower on Friday. The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 159.54 points, or 1.22 per cent, at 12,938.30. The energy sector closed down 1.9 per cent, despite a rise in crude prices.

Wall Street’s main indexes fell on Friday as the coronavirus abruptly ended a record U.S. job growth streak of 113 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 357.99 points, or 1.67 per cent, to end at 21,055.45 point, the S&P 500 lost 38.34 points, or 1.52 per cent, to 2,488.56 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 114.23 points, or 1.53 per cent, to 7,373.08.

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TALKING POINTS

Warned of a pandemic, Canada’s governments still seem to be playing catch-up

“And now we are told, after three weeks of living under virtual house arrest, that we must remain there, for another three months, perhaps; it depends, according to the Prime Minister, on how we ‘behave.’ But if our governments had behaved better, we might never have got into this fix, or might already be out of it. Say this for the toilet-paper hoarders: They saw where this was headed, sooner than the rest of us.” – Andrew Coyne

For some women, home is as dangerous as the virus

“People who work with vulnerable women across this country are worried – more worried than they were before, even. They’re worried about endangered women and their children, trapped in homes that are even more tension-filled than ever; they’re worried about an economic crash that sees their fundraising dry up; they’re worried about having to lay off their own staff members, when they were already operating on a shoestring. But they’re also coming up with innovative ways of coping, which they hope will outlast this crisis and might just provide permanent solutions for an overburdened system.” – Elizabeth Renzetti

You aren’t wasting your self-isolation – you are engaged in one of the largest acts of care in human history

“Time at the office was equally wasted – but it did not feel that way because corporate environments have faceless, grandfathered procedures that always suggest there’s some mysterious point to the three-hour ‘all hands’ meeting, the endless redundancies, the zombie-walk of bureaucracy. There isn’t.” – Michael Harris, author of Solitude: In Pursuit of a Singular Life in a Crowded World

LIVING BETTER

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered waves of anxiety for many people, whether it’s feeling a loss of control over life in an area of physical distancing and disruption or worries about your health or the health of the people you love. This is why some people are turning to journaling. Studies have shown that writing about feelings reduces stress and anxiety and can even boost the immune system. Journaling can be such an effective way of processing thoughts and feelings that it is often recommended by mental health professionals. Considering the event we are all currently living through, journals kept today may be of great personal interest years from now.

TODAY’S LONG READ

There’s a new craze brewing right now and it involves wait-lists, bouncers and DJs. And yes, it does respect the physical distancing rules in place to slow the COVID-19 pandemic. Online, virtual dance parties are popping over all over stay-at-home orders started to roll out.

These gatherings mirrors a real-life nightclub; attendees often dress up for a night out, even if their corner of the party is located in their living rooms. A bouncer will eject party-goers who don’t follow the rules. Attendees can even make a donation via PayPal, an approximation of a cover charge that organizers use to pay the DJs and drag artists who perform each night. Some are hitting the 1,000-person Zoom limit and popular DJs are taking note. Artists such as Diplo, Questlove and hip-hop icon DJ D-Nice have hosted events, too.

In some ways, these events may be even better than outings to real clubs, and not just because the dress code is more relaxed. Experts say there are mental-health benefits to dancing it out. Read more.

Evening Update was written by Chris Hannay, Madeleine White and Jordan Chittley. If you’d like to receive this newsletter by e-mail every weekday evening, go here to sign up. If you have any feedback, send us a note.

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