June WTI crude oil (CLM24) on Tuesday closed down -1.10 (-1.39%), and June RBOB gasoline (RBM24) closed down -5.09 (-2.03%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices closed moderately lower Tuesday, with gasoline falling to a 2-1/2 month low.  Crude prices are under pressure on concern several OPEC+ members may want to boost their production quotas when the group meets on June 1.  A supportive factor for crude was Tuesday's fall in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 1-week low.

A negative factor for crude prices is concern that some OPEC+ members want to boost their crude production levels, which may lead to infighting among the group when it meets on June 1.  Bloomberg reported Tuesday that the UAE, Iraq, Algeria, and Kazakhstan aim to boost their production quotas.  Saudi Arabia has pushed back against boosting output and has urged OPEC+ to be cautious about adding barrels to the market.  The market consensus is that the 22-nation alliance will prolong its current crude production cuts into the second half of this year.  OPEC+ members, at their last meeting on April 3, left their existing production cuts of about 2 million bpd in place until the end of June.

Weakness in the crude crack spread is bearish for oil prices.  The crack spread on Tuesday dropped to a 2-3/4 month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil and refining it into gasoline or distillates.

Higher than-expected Russian crude output is bearish for oil prices.  According to Bloomberg calculations based on official data, Russian crude production in April was 9.418 million bpd, more than +300,000 bpd above the 9.1 million bpd target Russia agreed to with OPEC+.  Meanwhile, Russia's fuel exports have been undercut by recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries as fuel exports in the week to May 12 fell by about -440,000 bpd to 3.24 million bpd, the lowest in eight weeks.  

Crude oil prices have underlying support from concern about the Hamas-Israel conflict.  Israel's military seems to be on the verge of conducting major military operations in the southern Gaza city of Rafah despite opposition from the Biden administration.  There is also concern that the war might spread to Hezbollah in Lebanon or even to a direct conflict with Iran.  Meanwhile, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have forced shippers to divert shipments around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Red Sea, disrupting global crude oil supplies.

Reduced crude oil in floating storage is bullish for prices.  Monday's weekly data from Vortexa showed that the amount of crude oil held worldwide on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -11% w/w to 55.92 million bbl as of May 10, the lowest in 4 years.

An increase in crude demand in India, the world's third-largest crude consumer, is bullish for oil prices after India's April oil demand rose +6.1% y/y to 19.86 MMT.

The consensus is that Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories will fall by -600,000 bbl.

Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of May 3 were -3.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -6.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending May 3 was unchanged w/w at 13.1 million bpd, below the recent record high of 13.3 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ended May 10 fell by -3 rigs to 496 rigs, slightly above the 2-year low of 494 rigs posted on November 10.  The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past year from the 4-year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
 

• Crude Prices Undercut by Concern Some OPEC+ Members Want to Boost Production
• Crude Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Chinese Energy Demand Optimism
• Crude Pushes Higher on Dollar Weakness and Chinese Energy Demand Optimism
• Crude Oil Falls Back on Stronger Dollar and Weak US Consumer Sentiment Report