Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain
5/15/24
June'24 Live Cattle were 7 ½ cents higher today and settled at 178.25. Today's high was 179.20 and the 1-month high is 179.65. Today's low was 177.67 ½ and the 1-month low is 172.70. Since 4/15 June'24 Live Cattle is 4.42 ½ higher or 2 ½%. The Feeders had a small gain. August'24 Feeder Cattle were 20 cents higher today and settled at 255 87 ½. Today's high was 256.72 ½ and the 1-month high is 261.80. Today's low was 254.97 ½ and the 1-month low is 248.60. Since 4/15 August'24 Feeder Cattle are 6.10 higher or almost 2 ½%. The Hogs slid lower again. June'24 Lean Hogs were 82 ½ cents lower today and settled at 97.50. Today's high was 98.62 ½ and the 1-month high is 108.55. Today's low was 97.00 and the 1-month low is 248.60. Since 4/15 June'24 Lean Hogs are 4.95 lower or almost 5%. The Livestock Markets broke from their highs today, in a narrow trading session, after the large gains posted yesterday. It was surprising to see the Cattle Markets barely staying positive today, while the Stock Market was much higher, and the US Dollar Index took a big hit. That is not a good sign. The Cattle Market could have run out of gas, at the same time the feedlots are full of heavy Cattle. I feel it is possible to retest the monthly lows in the Fats, Feeders and Hogs.
The Grains broke hard after coming off their highs. July'24 Soybeans were 1 cent lower today and settled at 1213 ½. Today's high was 1232 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1256 ½. Today's low was 1209 ½ and the 1-month low is 1145 ¾. Since 4/15 July'24 Soybeans are 41 ½ cents higher or 3 ½%. Corn gave some back today. July'24 Corn was 5 cents lower today and settled at 462 ½. Today's high was 473 ¼ and the 1-month high is 475 ½. Today's low was 461 ½ and the 1-month low is 435 ¾. Since 4/15 July'24 Corn is 18 ¼ cents higher or more than 4%. The Wheat had a wild day. July'24 Wheat was 6 ¾ cents lower and settled at 665 ¾. Today's high was 697 and that is also the new 1-month high. Today's low was 662 ¼ and the 1-month low is 550. Since 4/15 July'24 Wheat is 98 ¼ cents higher or more than 17%. The grains all broke, after making their highs early in the trading day. It was not a fast break, but more of a steady decline that took most of the trading day to complete. July'24 Soybeans closed 18 ¾ cents lower than the high today. July'24 Corn settled 11 ¾ cents lower from the high. July'24 Wheat slowly dropped 34 ¾ cents after making a new 1-month high, just 3 cents short of $7.00. It was not a strong look for the Grains. There are still problems with the Russian Wheat crop and their estimates were cut by almost 4mt, and over a million acres will need to be replanted, all because of frost damage. The Kansas Wheat Tour produced an average yield of 49.9 bushels per acre, and the 5-year average is 42.7 bushels per acre. This information was released before the open this morning, so it should not have anything to do with the Wheat breaking today, along with the news being both bullish and bearish. Some areas of the Corn Belt continue to get rain, and planting Corn has been a challenge in some areas. CONAB raised its totals in Brazil to 111.636mt, but well below the USDA number of 122mt. This was also known before the open today. The Biden Administration imposed tariffs on Chinses EV's and semiconductors, but not on used cooking oil, used in biofuels. Last time China responded by hitting the US Agricultural sector. There is still a large gap between the CONAB number, they just raised it to 147.685mt, and the USDA number of 154mt for Brazilian Soybeans. I wonder why CONAB would leave their production numbers in Rio Grande the same after all the flooding, and DR Cordonnier left the Brazil production numbers unchanged, while there is still 20% left to harvest in flooded Rio Grande. The only thing that makes sense to me, is that the yield was huge. Rio Grande do Sul was on pace to be the second largest producing state of Soybeans in Brazil. Before the flood, the President of Cargill, in Brazil, was talking about having to raise Soybean production numbers. I feel that CONAB will have to raise their Bean numbers again when harvest is complete. I am still Bearish the Soybean Market.
-Bill
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