S&P500 (ES) Weekly/Daily/4hr

The S&P500 (ESH23) is trying to firm going into the weekend, but remains wobbly for next week as it has arguably slid back into the downchannel (on the weekly chart).  Odds are low for a fresh February high before month end, with ES more likely to slide to a new February low in the same period.  Any weekly close below the psychologically key 4k whole figure level would dramatically increase the likelihood that the slightly higher February high versus the January and December highs was a bear trap.  Before bears get excited, ES would need to slide below the January low, although this is unlikely to occur before mid March.  Volatility will surge today 830am EST with the US core PCE price index.  The escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict deserves close monitoring. Congratulations to paying subscribers who benefited from the Oct 18, 2022 analysis highlighting the early stages of a month plus Dead Cat Bounce, or from the February 18, 2020 analysis one day before the record high in the ES, warning of the pending slide in the S&P500.  The tiring weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD are weighing on the bottomish daily RSI and Stochastics.  I am looking to enter short in the red zone (of the daily chart), targeting the green zone for Thursday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).  Click here for analysis on VIX, GBPAUD

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