Nevada’s fractured Republican presidential nomination is the outcome of the turmoil engulfing American conservatives

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Ron Knecht cast his vote in the Nevada Republican primary, knowing it won’t count for much. Front-runner Donald Trump wasn’t even on the ballot, after the state’s party leadership decided to eschew the primary vote and instead hold in-person caucuses.

At the caucuses, which will be held for a few evening hours later this week, those in attendance will determine which of just two candidates – Mr. Trump and Ryan Binkley, a little-known Texas pastor and businessman – will receive Nevada’s 26 delegates to the national party convention later this year.

Support for other Republican candidates, including former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, can only be expressed on a primary ballot that, by state requirement, was mailed to the homes of registered Republicans, such as Mr. Knecht. But that vote’s outcome will have no bearing on delegates, making it at best a symbolic exercise.

“It’s the kind of thing that annoys the average voter. Why are these people playing these games?” said Mr. Knecht, a former state controller. He voted in the primary “just to express my preference,” but plans to eschew the caucus, whose outcome he sees as predetermined.

“Essentially, the Republican leadership thought they could control the votes in the caucus better and make sure that Trump gets all 26 delegates. That’s the essence of it,” he said.

Nevada’s fractured Republican presidential selection system is a particularly striking outcome of the turmoil that continues to engulf conservative politics in a country where parts of the political establishment maintain a strong distaste for Mr. Trump.

It’s also a demonstration of the hold Mr. Trump and his acolytes have asserted on the machinery of American politics – a hold so thorough in Nevada that Ms. Haley, now Mr. Trump’s chief rival for the Republican nomination, has “not spent a dime nor an ounce of energy on Nevada,” her campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, told reporters Monday. “We made the decision early on that we were not going to pay $55,000 to a Trump entity … to participate in a process that was rigged for Trump,” she said.

In states across the country, rules have been changed in ways that allow Mr. Trump to sweep larger numbers of delegates. In California, if he can secure more than 50 per cent of the vote, he will take the state’s entire contingent of 169 delegates, rather than a proportion of the total. Michigan, too, will have a dual Republican primary and caucus that is expected to yield additional delegates for Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump’s “operatives are true believers,” said David Cay Johnston, a former journalist who is author of The Making of Donald Trump. “And they’re going to do whatever it takes.”

Nevada Republican chair Michael McDonald is a long-time ally of Mr. Trump who was indicted late last year as one of six “fake electors” from the state who sought to overturn President Joe Biden’s 2020 win in Nevada. A trial is expected in early March. He has pleaded not guilty.

Nevada’s Republican primary is set against years of infighting between establishment members, some of whom have resigned, and ascendant members of the new right.

Last year, the Nevada State Republican Party sued to block the primary, which was mandated by the state in 2021. That suit was dropped in January. Instead, Mr. McDonald and Mr. Trump both urged Republicans to skip Tuesday’s primary altogether. So far, fewer than 10 per cent of eligible Republicans have voted.

Caucuses will take place Thursday, with Republicans saying they can better verify voter identity at the in-person selection process. The concurrent processes have caused confusion and concern about caucus turnout, but “McDonald is in the tank for Trump, and the Trump campaign wants to leave nothing to chance,” said Jon Ralston, a Nevada journalist and veteran political commentator.

Even though Mr. Trump “would have easily won the primary, he perhaps wouldn’t have won it by as large a margin as he will for a small turnout caucus.”

Mr. Ralston calls it an embarrassment for the state and its Republican Party.

For Ms. Haley, a key question is whether she can amass more support in Nevada than “none of the above,” a ballot option championed by high-profile Republicans including Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, a supporter of Mr. Trump.

Democrats, meanwhile, have argued that Mr. Trump’s drive to win represents a much larger threat, including to democracy itself.

Some Republicans in Nevada have echoed that concern, saying they worry about an erosion in voters’ confidence. Nevada stands to be an important state in choosing the next president. In 2020, Mr. Trump lost here to Mr. Biden by fewer than 35,000 votes. The imperative for Republicans in an expected rematch this November is to encourage more people to get out and vote, said Chuck Muth, a former state party executive director.

Machinations around this week’s primary may achieve the opposite, he said.

People “aren’t going to vote simply because they don’t trust the election system, thanks to the Nevada Republicans,” he said.